← EFL Championship 2025-26 · Sat, Mar 7, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: S. Allison
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Birmingham win | 48% | 1.91 |
| Draw | 28% | 3.30 |
| Charlton win | 24% | 3.90 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Charlton +0.5 | 53% | 1.83 |
| Birmingham +0.5 | 47% | 2.03 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 55% | 1.73 |
| Over | 45% | 2.10 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 17' | 🟨 | August Priske · Birmingham |
| 74' | ⚽ | Charlie Kelman · Charlton |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 12 | Shots | 7 |
| 4 | On target | 1 |
| 3 | Corners | 3 |
| 6 | Fouls | 14 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Charlton | Birmingham |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.37 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.42 | 0.53 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.36 | 0.44 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.64 | 0.69 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| venue | The Valley |
| coach days | 765.00 | 644.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.08 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.40 | 3.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 3.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 7.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.77 | 3.10 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.15 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.44 | 0.51 |
| elo | 1483.64 | 1554.49 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -22.72 | -30.49 |
| eye test v1 | -0.66 | 0.09 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.16 | 0.26 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 46.80 | 53.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.63 | 0.97 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.60 | 0.70 |
| league points | 41.00 | 49.00 |
| league rank | 18.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 4.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 69.20 | 78.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 41.00 | 56.20 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 4.79 |
| scorer concentration | 0.24 | 0.21 |
| season ppg | 1.17 | 1.40 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -3.40 | 1.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.00 | 12.60 |
| skill v1 | -1.12 | 0.05 |
| solidity v1 | 0.44 | 0.47 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.30 | 3.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.00 | 4.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 5.00 |
| squad age | 29.66 | 26.66 |
| state index | -0.62 | -0.22 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.80 | 0.62 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.22 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.17 | 0.17 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.22 |
| travel km | — | 170.60 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 2.00 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.08 | 0.93 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.10 | 0.96 |