← EFL Championship 2025-26 · Sat, Mar 7, 12:30 PM UTC · ref: D. Webb
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Millwall win | 41% | 2.30 |
| Hull win | 31% | 3.00 |
| Draw | 28% | 3.30 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Hull +0.25 | 53% | 1.80 |
| Millwall +0.25 | 47% | 2.05 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 50% | 1.91 |
| Under | 50% | 1.91 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 14' | ⚽ | Jake Cooper · Millwall |
| 18' | ⚽ | Joe Gelhardt · Hull |
| 31' | 🟨 | John Lundstram · Hull |
| 39' | 🟨 | Tom Watson · Millwall |
| 54' | 🟨 | Luke Cundle · Millwall |
| 57' | 🟨 | Jake Cooper · Millwall |
| 70' | ⚽ | Mihailo Ivanovic · Millwall |
| 74' | 🟨 | Charlie Hughes · Hull |
| 76' | 🟨 | Billy Mitchell · Millwall |
| 78' | ⚽ | Josh Coburn · Millwall |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 23 | Shots | 9 |
| 5 | On target | 4 |
| 5 | Corners | 2 |
| 8 | Fouls | 15 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Hull | Millwall |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.36 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.21 | 0.42 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.37 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.76 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 1.80 |
| venue | MKM Stadium |
| coach days | 249.00 | 461.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.19 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | 3.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 3.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 6.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.30 | 2.92 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.06 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.53 |
| elo | 1502.03 | 1554.29 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -17.28 | 37.24 |
| eye test v1 | -1.02 | -0.33 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.73 | -0.11 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 53.20 | 66.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 12.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.26 | 0.94 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 1.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.80 | 0.69 |
| league points | 60.00 | 62.00 |
| league rank | 5.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 71.00 | 69.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 49.80 | 48.80 |
| rest days | 3.70 | 6.90 |
| scorer concentration | 0.22 | 0.17 |
| season ppg | 1.71 | 1.77 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -7.40 | 1.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 8.20 | 12.00 |
| skill v1 | -0.74 | -0.67 |
| solidity v1 | -1.36 | 0.53 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.60 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.00 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 1.67 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 4.00 |
| squad age | 28.80 | — |
| state index | -0.46 | 0.68 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.46 | -0.21 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.22 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.13 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.22 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.40 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.91 | 0.94 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 0.91 | 1.26 |