← EFL Championship 2025-26 · Mon, Mar 2, 08:00 PM UTC · ref: T. Kirk
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Middlesbrough win | 38% | 2.40 |
| Birmingham win | 36% | 2.57 |
| Draw | 26% | 3.60 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Middlesbrough +0 | 52% | 1.85 |
| Birmingham +0 | 48% | 2.00 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 50% | 1.93 |
| Under | 50% | 1.93 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 13' | ⚽ | Matt Targett · Middlesbrough |
| 26' | ⚽ | Matt Targett · Middlesbrough |
| 48' | ⚽ | Marvin Ducksch · Birmingham |
| 58' | 🟨 | Tomoki Iwata · Birmingham |
| 60' | ⚽ | David Strelec · Middlesbrough |
| 66' | 🟨 | Tommy Conway · Middlesbrough |
| 85' | 🟨 | Solomon Brynn · Middlesbrough |
| 90' | 🟨 | Ethan Laird · Birmingham |
| 90' | 🟨 | Callum Brittain · Middlesbrough |
| 90' | 🟨 | Adilson Malanda · Middlesbrough |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 11 | Shots | 10 |
| 7 | On target | 3 |
| 6 | Corners | 2 |
| 11 | Fouls | 12 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Birmingham | Middlesbrough |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.42 | 0.25 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.35 | 0.36 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.75 | 0.65 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| venue | St. Andrew's @ Knighthead Park |
| coach days |
| 639.00 |
| 213.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.07 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 0.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 5.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 7.00 | 6.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.20 | 3.47 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.10 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.51 | 0.61 |
| elo | 1573.63 | 1535.06 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -0.46 | -5.74 |
| eye test v1 | -0.22 | 0.67 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.11 | -0.39 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 53.70 | 53.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.06 | 1.48 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 1.00 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.40 |
| keeper form v1 | — | 0.76 |
| league points | 49.00 | 63.00 |
| league rank | 11.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 79.40 | 85.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 56.40 | 65.00 |
| rest days | 5.01 | 6.01 |
| scorer concentration | 0.18 | 0.22 |
| season ppg | 1.44 | 1.85 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 6.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.60 | 17.40 |
| skill v1 | 0.19 | 1.13 |
| solidity v1 | 0.72 | 0.60 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.60 | 5.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 5.80 |
| squad age | 25.35 | 27.73 |
| state index | 0.20 | 0.03 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.67 | 1.00 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.20 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.26 |
| travel km | — | 237.70 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.80 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 0.81 | 0.98 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.06 | 1.33 |