← EFL Championship 2025-26 · Sat, Feb 28, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: A. Backhouse
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Ipswich win | 60% | 1.53 |
| Draw | 23% | 3.90 |
| Swansea win | 17% | 5.50 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Swansea −1 | 53% | 1.80 |
| Ipswich −1 | 47% | 2.05 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 51% | 1.88 |
| Under | 49% | 1.98 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 3' | ⚽ | Anis Mehmeti · Ipswich |
| 39' | 🟨 | Anis Mehmeti · Ipswich |
| 41' | ⚽ | Ivan Azón · Ipswich |
| 74' | ⚽ | George Hirst · Ipswich |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 11 | Shots | 10 |
| 6 | On target | 3 |
| 4 | Corners | 0 |
| 17 | Fouls | 13 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 0 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Ipswich | Swansea |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.35 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.37 | 0.22 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.38 | 0.29 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.77 | 0.64 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 2.00 |
| venue | Portman Road |
| coach days |
| 1550.00 |
| 242.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.11 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.80 | -0.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 5.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 5.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.44 | 2.15 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.05 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.51 | 0.55 |
| elo | 1555.34 | 1467.93 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -5.73 | 20.51 |
| eye test v1 | 0.33 | -0.14 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.09 | -0.44 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 61.50 | 55.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.92 | 1.18 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 1.10 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.45 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.74 | 0.80 |
| league points | 57.00 | 46.00 |
| league rank | 5.00 | 16.00 |
| matches since blank | 9.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 80.20 | 78.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 55.00 | 58.40 |
| rest days | 3.80 | 3.80 |
| scorer concentration | 0.19 | 0.41 |
| season ppg | 1.78 | 1.35 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 2.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.80 | 14.20 |
| skill v1 | 0.58 | 0.53 |
| solidity v1 | -0.63 | 0.31 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.10 | 4.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.67 | 2.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 3.60 |
| squad age | 27.34 | 26.99 |
| state index | 0.21 | 0.16 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.48 | 0.64 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.19 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.23 |
| travel km | — | 351.90 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.20 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.59 | 1.21 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.67 | 1.56 |