← EFL Championship 2025-26 · Sat, Feb 28, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: A. Kitchen
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Coventry win | 62% | 1.49 |
| Draw | 22% | 4.20 |
| Stoke win | 16% | 5.75 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Coventry −1 | 51% | 1.88 |
| Stoke −1 | 49% | 1.98 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 55% | 1.73 |
| Under | 45% | 2.10 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 12' | ⚽ | Haji Wright · Coventry |
| 45' | ⚽ | Ben Gibson · Stoke |
| 90' | 🟨 | Bobby Thomas · Coventry |
| 90' | 🟨 | Tommy Simkin · Stoke |
| 90' | ⚽ | Jack Rudoni · Coventry |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 20 | Shots | 3 |
| 8 | On target | 1 |
| 7 | Corners | 1 |
| 7 | Fouls | 6 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Coventry | Stoke |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.40 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.34 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.63 | 0.62 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 2.20 |
| venue | Coventry Building Society Arena |
| 484.00 |
| 423.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.06 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 4.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 5.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.39 | 1.81 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.47 | 0.46 |
| elo | 1599.11 | 1452.79 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 13.31 | -22.24 |
| eye test v1 | -0.18 | -0.33 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.02 | 0.26 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 63.90 | 54.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.84 | 0.88 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | — | 0.65 |
| league points | 68.00 | 47.00 |
| league rank | 1.00 | 15.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 75.60 | 78.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 49.60 | 54.40 |
| rest days | 2.80 | 2.79 |
| scorer concentration | 0.18 | 0.28 |
| season ppg | 2.00 | 1.38 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | -1.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.60 | 11.20 |
| skill v1 | -0.20 | -0.01 |
| solidity v1 | 0.79 | 0.12 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.70 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 4.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 4.00 |
| squad age | — | 28.32 |
| state index | 0.47 | -0.41 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.18 | 0.59 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.21 |
| travel km | — | 75.50 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.60 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 0.96 | 1.54 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.30 | 1.01 |