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Portsmouth 0–1 Hull

← EFL Championship 2025-26 · Sat, Feb 28, 12:30 PM UTC · ref: S. Allison

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Portsmouth win50%1.86
Draw27%3.40
Hull win23%4.00

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Hull −0.551%1.90
Portsmouth −0.549%1.95

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under57%1.67
Over43%2.20

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

60'🟨Amir Hadžiahmetović · Hull
73'⚽Matt Crooks · Hull
88'🟨Ivor Pandur · Hull
90'🟨Lewie Coyle · Hull

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score0
22Shots2
6On target2
11Corners2
10Fouls21
0Yellow cards3
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricPortsmouthHull
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.32—
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.38—
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.36—
blown lead rate (last 20)0.050.00
box share (last 5)0.78—
cards avg (last 5)1.402.20
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueFratton Park
coach days
1154.00
242.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.050.05
congestion 21d5.003.00
conversion (last 5)0.110.16
corner diff avg (last 5)5.600.80
corners against avg (last 5)3.604.80
corners for avg (last 5)9.205.60
corners volatility (last 10)4.992.31
defensive leak (last 5)0.140.13
dominance (last 5)0.600.44
elo1465.511497.99
elo momentum (last 5)19.74-15.82
eye test v10.24-0.54
eye trend v10.11-0.20
first sub minute (last 10)60.7048.00
form points (last 5)6.007.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.200.00
goals against avg (last 5)1.201.60
goals for avg (last 5)1.401.60
goals volatility (last 10)1.251.26
h2 goals (last 10)0.900.50
h2h win rate (last 5)0.500.50
ht lead rate (last 20)0.200.35
keeper form v10.620.78
league points39.0057.00
league rank20.005.00
matches since blank3.003.00
matches since clean sheet5.003.00
matches since win1.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)74.6070.80
possession avg (last 5)56.6051.00
rest days3.703.70
scorer concentration0.160.23
season ppg1.181.73
shot diff avg (last 5)5.00-3.00
shots for avg (last 5)14.2010.20
skill v10.09-0.54
solidity v10.94-0.62
sot against avg (last 5)3.405.00
sot for avg (last 10)4.404.00
sot for avg (last 3)5.004.00
sot for avg (last 5)5.203.80
squad age—28.05
state index0.02-0.07
sterile dominance v10.180.12
threat rate (last 10)0.260.24
threat rate (last 3)0.230.19
threat rate (last 5)0.250.21
travel km—331.40
venue ppg (last 5)1.602.60
xg against avg (last 5)0.761.70
xg for avg (last 5)1.351.15