← EFL Championship 2025-26 · Sat, Feb 28, 12:30 PM UTC · ref: L. Doughty
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Derby win | 45% | 2.05 |
| Draw | 28% | 3.30 |
| Blackburn win | 27% | 3.40 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Derby −0.25 | 52% | 1.85 |
| Blackburn −0.25 | 48% | 2.00 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 55% | 1.73 |
| Over | 45% | 2.10 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 36' | 🟨 | Sammie Szmodics · Derby |
| 36' | 🟨 | Adam Forshaw · Blackburn |
| 45' | 🟨 | Lewis Travis · Derby |
| 45' | ⚽ | Hayden Carter · Blackburn |
| 46' | 🟨 | Bobby Clark · Derby |
| 55' | ⚽ | Ben Brereton Díaz · Derby |
| 58' | 🟨 | Eiran Joe Cashin · Blackburn |
| 60' | 🟨 | Yuri Ribeiro · Blackburn |
| 74' | ⚽ | Matthew Clarke · Derby |
| 79' | 🟨 | Hayden Carter · Blackburn |
| 82' | ⚽ | Rhian Brewster · Derby |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 14 | Shots | 11 |
| 6 | On target | 3 |
| 2 | Corners | 3 |
| 10 | Fouls | 14 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Derby | Blackburn |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.27 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.36 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.30 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.63 | 0.68 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.60 |
| venue | Pride Park |
| coach days |
| 392.00 |
| 211.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.13 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | 0.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 4.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 4.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.99 | 2.45 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.08 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.48 | 0.57 |
| elo | 1458.04 | 1423.36 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 2.79 | 12.66 |
| eye test v1 | 0.03 | -0.58 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.17 | 0.85 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 61.70 | 54.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.35 | 0.94 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.30 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.45 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.73 | 0.67 |
| league points | 48.00 | 38.00 |
| league rank | 12.00 | 21.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 74.60 | 73.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 45.20 | 48.00 |
| rest days | 3.70 | 3.70 |
| scorer concentration | 0.21 | 0.24 |
| season ppg | 1.41 | 1.12 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | 1.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.00 | 10.80 |
| skill v1 | -0.29 | -0.56 |
| solidity v1 | 0.53 | 0.49 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.90 | 2.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 4.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 3.40 |
| squad age | 25.54 | — |
| state index | -0.23 | -0.18 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.68 | -0.13 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.23 |
| travel km | — | 113.90 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.80 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 0.92 | 1.19 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.56 | 1.10 |