← EFL Championship 2025-26 · Fri, Feb 27, 08:00 PM UTC · ref: L. Smith
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Bristol City win | 41% | 2.30 |
| Watford win | 33% | 2.85 |
| Draw | 27% | 3.50 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Watford −0.25 | 53% | 1.80 |
| Bristol City −0.25 | 47% | 2.05 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 50% | 1.91 |
| Under | 50% | 1.91 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 7' | ⚽ | Luca Kjerrumgaard · Watford |
| 26' | 🟨 | Neto Borges · Bristol City |
| 36' | ⚽ | Scott Twine · Bristol City |
| 58' | 🟨 | Jeremy Ngakia · Watford |
| 58' | 🟨 | Stephen Mfuni · Watford |
| 77' | ⚽ | Jeremy Ngakia · Watford |
| 86' | 🟨 | Edo Kayembe · Watford |
| 90' | 🟨 | Delano Burgzorg · Bristol City |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 11 | Shots | 11 |
| 4 | On target | 4 |
| 3 | Corners | 3 |
| 6 | Fouls | 10 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Bristol City | Watford |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.34 | 0.28 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.43 | 0.29 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.24 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.51 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.80 |
| venue | Ashton Gate Stadium |
| coach days | 57.00 | 57.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.04 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 5.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 5.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.21 | 2.37 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.12 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.45 | 0.67 |
| elo | 1488.22 | 1451.66 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -9.85 | -3.24 |
| eye test v1 | -0.45 | -0.21 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.30 | 0.33 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 51.30 | 50.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.71 | 1.10 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.62 | 0.67 |
| league points | 50.00 | 48.00 |
| league rank | 8.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 5.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 76.20 | 78.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 50.60 | 51.00 |
| rest days | 3.01 | 3.01 |
| scorer concentration | 0.19 | 0.21 |
| season ppg | 1.47 | 1.41 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -3.00 | 8.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.60 | 15.20 |
| skill v1 | -0.43 | -0.08 |
| solidity v1 | -0.51 | 1.20 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 2.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.50 | 4.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 3.80 |
| squad age | — | 27.96 |
| state index | -0.42 | -0.14 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.33 | -0.32 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.20 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.19 | 0.35 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.30 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.20 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.42 | 0.73 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 0.82 | 1.09 |