← EFL Championship 2025-26 · Wed, Feb 25, 08:00 PM UTC · ref: J. Linington
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Stoke win | 50% | 1.86 |
| Draw | 27% | 3.50 |
| Oxford win | 23% | 4.00 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Oxford −0.5 | 50% | 1.93 |
| Stoke −0.5 | 50% | 1.93 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 57% | 1.67 |
| Over | 43% | 2.20 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 10' | 🟨 | Maksym Talovierov · Stoke |
| 36' | ⚽ | Lamine Cissé · Stoke |
| 44' | ⚽ | Ciaron Brown · Oxford |
| 53' | 🟨 | Ben Wilmot · Stoke |
| 57' | ⚽ | Jesurun Rak-Sakyi · Stoke |
| 89' | 🟨 | Will Vaulks · Oxford |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 21 | Shots | 9 |
| 9 | On target | 2 |
| 8 | Corners | 7 |
| 11 | Fouls | 5 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Stoke | Oxford |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.23 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.33 | 0.18 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.26 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.59 | 0.48 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| venue | Bet365 Stadium |
| 420.00 |
| 208.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.03 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | -4.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 7.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 2.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.56 | 1.87 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.17 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.38 | 0.36 |
| elo | 1446.00 | 1390.21 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -24.54 | -26.11 |
| eye test v1 | -1.08 | -1.41 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.02 | 0.21 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 53.50 | 50.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | -1.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.79 | 0.70 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.10 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.68 | 0.77 |
| league points | 44.00 | 29.00 |
| league rank | 16.00 | 23.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 7.00 | 5.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 75.80 | 64.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 52.80 | 32.00 |
| rest days | 4.31 | 4.21 |
| scorer concentration | 0.30 | 0.21 |
| season ppg | 1.33 | 0.88 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -5.80 | -7.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 8.40 | 8.00 |
| skill v1 | -0.38 | -2.16 |
| solidity v1 | -0.17 | -0.52 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.20 | 1.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.67 | 1.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 2.00 |
| squad age | 28.32 | — |
| state index | -0.94 | -1.14 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.74 | -1.56 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.19 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.17 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.26 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.00 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.66 | 1.81 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 0.78 | 0.58 |