← EFL Championship 2025-26 · Wed, Feb 25, 07:45 PM UTC · ref: D. Whitestone
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Birmingham win | 37% | 2.55 |
| Millwall win | 35% | 2.65 |
| Draw | 28% | 3.30 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Birmingham +0 | 51% | 1.90 |
| Millwall +0 | 49% | 1.95 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 53% | 1.80 |
| Over | 47% | 2.05 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 25' | ⚽ | Femi Azeez · Millwall |
| 31' | ⚽ | Tristan Crama · Millwall |
| 45' | 🟨 | Jhon Solís · Birmingham |
| 49' | ⚽ | Jake Cooper · Millwall |
| 53' | 🟨 | Jhon Solís · Birmingham |
| 53' | 🟥 | Jhon Solís · Birmingham |
| 59' | 🟨 | Femi Azeez · Millwall |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 11 | Shots | 5 |
| 5 | On target | 2 |
| 7 | Corners | 5 |
| 14 | Fouls | 8 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 0 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Millwall | Birmingham |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.35 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.36 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.32 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.79 | 0.78 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.00 |
| venue | The Den |
| coach days |
| 451.00 |
| 634.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.11 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 3.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 4.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.60 | 7.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.38 | 3.46 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.07 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.53 | 0.60 |
| elo | 1521.97 | 1591.62 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 18.67 | 13.03 |
| eye test v1 | -0.14 | 0.20 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.44 | 0.17 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 64.30 | 50.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 11.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.06 | 0.97 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.20 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.40 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.64 | 0.71 |
| league points | 56.00 | 49.00 |
| league rank | 5.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since blank | 8.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 69.60 | 77.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 49.00 | 55.40 |
| rest days | 4.20 | 4.20 |
| scorer concentration | 0.19 | 0.18 |
| season ppg | 1.70 | 1.48 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 5.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 14.00 | 15.20 |
| skill v1 | -0.46 | 0.27 |
| solidity v1 | -0.06 | 1.24 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.40 | 4.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 5.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 4.60 |
| squad age | — | 25.88 |
| state index | 0.39 | 0.60 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.47 | 0.08 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.18 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.27 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.64 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.53 | 1.45 |