← EFL Championship 2025-26 · Tue, Feb 24, 08:00 PM UTC · ref: O. Langford
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Southampton win | 56% | 1.66 |
| Draw | 24% | 3.90 |
| QPR win | 21% | 4.50 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| QPR −0.75 | 50% | 1.93 |
| Southampton −0.75 | 50% | 1.93 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 53% | 1.80 |
| Under | 47% | 2.00 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 9' | ⚽ | Finn Azaz · Southampton |
| 16' | 🟨 | Caspar Jander · Southampton |
| 45' | ⚽ | Kuryu Matsuki · Southampton |
| 50' | ⚽ | Kuryu Matsuki · Southampton |
| 59' | ⚽ | Leo Scienza · Southampton |
| 70' | ⚽ | James Bree · Southampton |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 14 | Shots | 5 |
| 9 | On target | 1 |
| 5 | Corners | 3 |
| 6 | Fouls | 12 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 0 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Southampton | QPR |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.39 | 0.28 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.48 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.37 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.64 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.40 |
| venue | St. Mary's Stadium |
| coach days |
| 238.00 |
| 238.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.12 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 4.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 5.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.51 | 1.77 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.18 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.53 | 0.58 |
| elo | 1467.20 | 1463.89 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 39.92 | 7.90 |
| eye test v1 | 0.48 | 0.45 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.27 | 0.55 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 54.90 | 63.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 11.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.14 | 1.16 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.00 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.76 | 0.57 |
| league points | 47.00 | 47.00 |
| league rank | 12.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since blank | 7.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 78.80 | 74.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 53.40 | 47.80 |
| rest days | 3.21 | 3.31 |
| scorer concentration | 0.20 | 0.24 |
| season ppg | 1.42 | 1.42 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 4.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.40 | 15.80 |
| skill v1 | 0.27 | -0.34 |
| solidity v1 | 0.98 | 0.12 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.90 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.33 | 5.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 5.40 |
| squad age | 27.70 | — |
| state index | 0.26 | -0.09 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.45 | -0.88 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.32 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.33 |
| travel km | — | 104.90 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.20 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 0.94 | 1.15 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.45 | 1.30 |