← EFL Championship 2025-26 · Tue, Feb 24, 07:45 PM UTC · ref: B. Toner
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Ipswich win | 42% | 2.20 |
| Watford win | 30% | 3.10 |
| Draw | 28% | 3.30 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Watford +0.25 | 51% | 1.88 |
| Ipswich +0.25 | 49% | 1.98 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 55% | 1.73 |
| Over | 45% | 2.10 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 25' | 🟨 | James Abankwah · Watford |
| 28' | 🟨 | Nestory Irankunda · Watford |
| 37' | ⚽ | Sindre Walle Egeli · Ipswich |
| 56' | 🟨 | Cédric Kipré · Ipswich |
| 77' | ⚽ | George Hirst · Ipswich |
| 83' | 🟨 | Darnell Furlong · Ipswich |
| 85' | 🟨 | Christian Walton · Ipswich |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 11 | Shots | 11 |
| 2 | On target | 3 |
| 3 | Corners | 4 |
| 14 | Fouls | 16 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Watford | Ipswich |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.38 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.82 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.80 |
| venue | Vicarage Road |
| coach days |
| 54.00 |
| 1546.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.04 | 0.14 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 3.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 3.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 6.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.37 | 2.36 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.14 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.68 | 0.52 |
| elo | 1466.01 | 1540.99 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -7.53 | -9.58 |
| eye test v1 | -0.05 | 0.33 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.31 | 0.07 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 50.90 | 61.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.05 | 0.99 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 1.00 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.40 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.71 | 0.72 |
| league points | 48.00 | 54.00 |
| league rank | 8.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 77.80 | 80.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 52.60 | 54.80 |
| rest days | 3.20 | 3.20 |
| scorer concentration | 0.21 | 0.20 |
| season ppg | 1.45 | 1.74 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 8.60 | 0.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 16.40 | 12.80 |
| skill v1 | -0.16 | 0.57 |
| solidity v1 | 0.66 | -0.48 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 5.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.10 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.00 | 5.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 4.80 |
| squad age | 27.96 | 27.92 |
| state index | -0.05 | -0.04 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.39 | 0.47 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.34 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.24 |
| travel km | — | 115.40 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.40 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.03 | 1.40 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 0.93 | 1.66 |