← EFL Championship 2025-26 · Tue, Feb 24, 07:45 PM UTC · ref: A. Kitchen
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Middlesbrough win | 63% | 1.46 |
| Draw | 21% | 4.50 |
| Leicester win | 16% | 5.75 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Leicester −1.25 | 54% | 1.75 |
| Middlesbrough −1.25 | 46% | 2.05 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 59% | 1.62 |
| Under | 41% | 2.30 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 18' | ⚽ | Caleb Okoli · Leicester |
| 43' | 🟨 | Luke Ayling · Middlesbrough |
| 45' | ⚽ | Riley McGree · Middlesbrough |
| 53' | 🟨 | Divine Mukasa · Leicester |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 17 | Shots | 11 |
| 4 | On target | 6 |
| 8 | Corners | 5 |
| 11 | Fouls | 9 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Middlesbrough | Leicester |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.38 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.33 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.41 | 0.27 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.20 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.62 | 0.59 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.00 |
| venue | Riverside Stadium |
| coach days | 207.00 | 207.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.15 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.20 | -1.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 6.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 5.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.63 | 3.16 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.20 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.65 | 0.49 |
| elo | 1691.96 | 1581.46 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 9.22 | -50.39 |
| eye test v1 | 1.06 | -0.53 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.08 | 0.18 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 53.00 | 50.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 1.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | -1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 2.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.57 | 0.84 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.00 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.40 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.77 | 0.62 |
| league points | 62.00 | 39.00 |
| league rank | 2.00 | 20.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 20.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 7.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 86.00 | 75.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 66.40 | 50.20 |
| rest days | 3.20 | 3.30 |
| scorer concentration | 0.22 | 0.22 |
| season ppg | 1.88 | 1.18 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 7.80 | -0.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 17.20 | 12.80 |
| skill v1 | 1.43 | -0.37 |
| solidity v1 | 1.04 | -0.79 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 6.00 | 3.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.67 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 6.60 | 3.00 |
| squad age | 27.73 | 26.93 |
| state index | 0.77 | -0.85 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 1.16 | -0.21 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.27 |
| travel km | — | 217.80 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.40 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 0.88 | 1.71 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.63 | 1.05 |