← EFL Championship 2025-26 · Tue, Feb 24, 07:45 PM UTC · ref: A. Herczeg
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Hull win | 43% | 2.15 |
| Derby win | 29% | 3.20 |
| Draw | 27% | 3.40 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Derby −0.25 | 51% | 1.90 |
| Hull −0.25 | 49% | 1.95 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 50% | 1.93 |
| Under | 50% | 1.93 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 2' | 🟨 | Patrick Agyemang · Derby |
| 9' | ⚽ (og) | Callum Elder · Hull |
| 17' | ⚽ | Craig Forsyth · Derby |
| 39' | ⚽ | Oliver McBurnie · Hull |
| 42' | ⚽ | Sammie Szmodics · Derby |
| 60' | 🟨 | Lewie Coyle · Hull |
| 60' | 🟨 | Joe Ward · Derby |
| 75' | ⚽ | John Egan · Hull |
| 84' | ⚽ | Lewis Koumas · Hull |
| 90' | 🟨 | Kyle Joseph · Hull |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 9 | Shots | 18 |
| 3 | On target | 6 |
| 7 | Corners | 3 |
| 19 | Fouls | 9 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Hull | Derby |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.36 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.43 | 0.29 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.46 | 0.29 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.20 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.72 | 0.67 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.80 |
| venue | MKM Stadium |
| 238.00 |
| 388.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.16 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | -1.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 4.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 2.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.21 | 3.97 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.07 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.45 | 0.41 |
| elo | 1486.24 | 1469.79 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -20.70 | 11.16 |
| eye test v1 | 0.10 | -0.59 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.04 | -0.15 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 47.30 | 63.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.97 | 1.35 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.50 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.80 | — |
| league points | 54.00 | 48.00 |
| league rank | 5.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 72.00 | 79.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 47.00 | 46.80 |
| rest days | 3.30 | 3.20 |
| scorer concentration | 0.22 | 0.22 |
| season ppg | 1.69 | 1.45 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -2.40 | -3.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.40 | 9.40 |
| skill v1 | -0.48 | -0.31 |
| solidity v1 | -0.15 | 0.53 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.80 | 3.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 2.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 3.20 |
| squad age | 28.53 | 25.54 |
| state index | -0.51 | 0.03 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.28 | 0.02 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.18 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.23 |
| travel km | — | 116.90 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.80 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.42 | 1.05 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.95 |