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Wrexham 5–3 Ipswich

← EFL Championship 2025-26 · Sat, Feb 21, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: L. Doughty

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Ipswich win45%2.10
Wrexham win28%3.30
Draw27%3.50

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Ipswich +0.2551%1.88
Wrexham +0.2549%1.98

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under53%1.83
Over47%2.03

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

6'⚽Kieffer Moore · Wrexham
20'⚽Anis Mehmeti · Ipswich
26'🟨Max Cleworth · Wrexham
31'🟨Callum Doyle · Wrexham
37'🟨Leif Davis · Ipswich
37'⚽Josh Windass · Wrexham
41'🟨Cédric Kipré · Ipswich
45'🟨Darnell Furlong · Ipswich
45'⚽Ivan Azón · Ipswich
47'⚽Cédric Kipré · Ipswich
57'🟨Wes Burns · Ipswich
60'🟨Oliver Rathbone · Wrexham
64'🟨Dominic Hyam · Wrexham
66'⚽George Thomason · Wrexham
75'⚽Callum Doyle · Wrexham
86'⚽Nathan Broadhead · Wrexham
88'🟨George Dobson · Wrexham

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

2Half-time score2
17Shots13
10On target6
5Corners2
14Fouls10
5Yellow cards4
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricWrexhamIpswich
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.340.33
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.430.38
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.330.37
blown lead rate (last 20)0.150.00
box share (last 5)0.510.83
cards avg (last 5)1.402.00
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueRacecourse Ground
coach days
1696.00
1543.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.150.00
congestion 21d2.002.00
conversion (last 5)0.130.13
corner diff avg (last 5)0.603.80
corners against avg (last 5)3.603.60
corners for avg (last 5)4.207.40
corners volatility (last 10)2.491.90
defensive leak (last 5)0.180.08
dominance (last 5)0.630.56
elo1595.471551.63
elo momentum (last 5)-17.4511.09
eye test v1-0.140.58
eye trend v10.21-0.05
first sub minute (last 10)66.1061.80
form points (last 5)8.0010.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.000.80
goals against avg (last 5)1.401.00
goals for avg (last 5)1.401.80
goals volatility (last 10)1.370.95
h2 goals (last 10)1.101.00
ht lead rate (last 20)0.300.40
keeper form v10.600.78
league points48.0054.00
league rank6.004.00
matches since blank1.007.00
matches since clean sheet2.003.00
matches since win2.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)78.4080.00
possession avg (last 5)52.6054.20
rest days3.8014.10
scorer concentration0.220.21
season ppg1.501.80
shot diff avg (last 5)5.203.00
shots for avg (last 5)12.8013.60
skill v1-0.090.77
solidity v11.170.76
sot against avg (last 5)3.203.20
sot for avg (last 10)4.205.00
sot for avg (last 3)5.005.00
sot for avg (last 5)4.205.00
squad age30.7427.90
state index0.110.40
sterile dominance v10.060.26
threat rate (last 10)0.240.27
threat rate (last 3)0.220.24
threat rate (last 5)0.260.26
venue ppg (last 5)1.401.40
xg against avg (last 5)0.541.05
xg for avg (last 5)0.982.04