← EFL Championship 2025-26 · Sat, Feb 21, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: D. Webb
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Watford win | 47% | 2.01 |
| Draw | 28% | 3.40 |
| Derby win | 26% | 3.60 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Derby −0.5 | 53% | 1.80 |
| Watford −0.5 | 47% | 2.05 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 55% | 1.73 |
| Over | 45% | 2.10 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 5' | ⚽ | Luca Kjerrumgaard · Watford |
| 23' | 🟨 | Matthew Clarke · Derby |
| 52' | 🟨 | Giorgi Chakvetadze · Watford |
| 55' | 🟨 | Callum Elder · Derby |
| 83' | 🟨 | Mamadou Doumbia · Watford |
| 90' | ⚽ | Mamadou Doumbia · Watford |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 18 | Shots | 5 |
| 8 | On target | 1 |
| 2 | Corners | 2 |
| 13 | Fouls | 11 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Watford | Derby |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.19 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.32 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.20 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.69 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.00 |
| venue | Vicarage Road |
| coach days |
| 51.00 |
| 385.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.03 | 0.18 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | -2.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.80 | 4.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.80 | 2.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.02 | 4.05 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.07 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.66 | 0.48 |
| elo | 1452.25 | 1483.55 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -21.10 | 38.71 |
| eye test v1 | -0.35 | -0.13 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.03 | 0.47 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 55.20 | 62.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | 1.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 2.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.05 | 1.26 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.55 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.69 | 0.72 |
| league points | 45.00 | 48.00 |
| league rank | 13.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 20.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 7.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 76.20 | 77.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 52.40 | 43.60 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.19 | 0.22 |
| season ppg | 1.41 | 1.50 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 7.40 | -0.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 15.60 | 11.40 |
| skill v1 | -0.26 | -0.44 |
| solidity v1 | 0.41 | 0.90 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 3.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.60 | 3.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.00 | 4.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 4.00 |
| squad age | 27.96 | 25.54 |
| state index | -0.54 | 0.51 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.34 | -0.70 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.33 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.29 |
| travel km | — | 157.60 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.00 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.10 | 0.96 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 0.96 | 1.18 |