← EFL Championship 2025-26 · Sat, Feb 21, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: J. Busby
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Southampton win | 63% | 1.49 |
| Draw | 22% | 4.33 |
| Charlton win | 16% | 6.00 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Southampton −1 | 51% | 1.88 |
| Charlton −1 | 49% | 1.98 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 53% | 1.80 |
| Under | 47% | 2.00 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 48' | ⚽ | Ross Stewart · Southampton |
| 67' | ⚽ | Sonny Carey · Charlton |
| 76' | 🟨 | Taylor Harwood-Bellis · Southampton |
| 84' | 🟨 | Flynn Downes · Southampton |
| 84' | 🟨 | Sonny Carey · Charlton |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 23 | Shots | 6 |
| 8 | On target | 3 |
| 10 | Corners | 1 |
| 6 | Fouls | 11 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Southampton | Charlton |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.38 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.49 | 0.29 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.47 | 0.35 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.77 | 0.70 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 2.80 |
| venue | St. Mary's Stadium |
| coach days | 235.00 | 751.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.07 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | -0.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 4.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 4.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.12 | 3.03 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.08 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.47 | 0.43 |
| elo | 1468.23 | 1492.35 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 51.61 | -17.04 |
| eye test v1 | 0.05 | -0.33 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.14 | 0.31 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 54.00 | 54.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 13.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.14 | 0.67 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.10 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.78 | 0.68 |
| league points | 46.00 | 39.00 |
| league rank | 13.00 | 17.00 |
| matches since blank | 6.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 75.20 | 69.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 49.80 | 44.60 |
| rest days | 10.80 | 3.80 |
| scorer concentration | 0.20 | 0.22 |
| season ppg | 1.44 | 1.22 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | -4.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.80 | 11.40 |
| skill v1 | -0.17 | -0.94 |
| solidity v1 | 0.94 | -0.17 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.60 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.00 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 3.80 |
| squad age | 27.00 | 29.66 |
| state index | 0.40 | -0.45 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.19 | -0.78 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.22 | 0.37 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.27 |
| travel km | — | 118.60 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.80 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 0.98 | 1.65 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.36 | 1.15 |