← EFL Championship 2025-26 · Sat, Feb 21, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: F. Hallam
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Norwich win | 38% | 2.45 |
| Birmingham win | 35% | 2.70 |
| Draw | 27% | 3.40 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Norwich +0 | 53% | 1.80 |
| Birmingham +0 | 47% | 2.05 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 51% | 1.88 |
| Under | 49% | 1.98 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 5' | ⚽ | Carlos Vicente · Birmingham |
| 14' | ⚽ | Marvin Ducksch · Birmingham |
| 39' | 🟨 | Christoph Klarer · Birmingham |
| 67' | ⚽ | Kenny McLean · Norwich |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 18 | Shots | 9 |
| 9 | On target | 5 |
| 6 | Corners | 5 |
| 6 | Fouls | 14 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Norwich | Birmingham |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.37 | 0.26 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.38 | 0.26 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.44 | 0.23 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.69 | 0.80 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.00 |
| venue | Carrow Road |
| coach days | 204.00 | 630.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.08 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | 5.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 3.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 8.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.94 | 3.92 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.03 | 0.06 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.52 | 0.68 |
| elo | 1466.00 | 1583.25 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 61.51 | 11.51 |
| eye test v1 | 0.03 | -0.14 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.01 | -0.01 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 53.50 | 47.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 12.00 | 11.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.57 | 0.95 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.30 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.40 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.57 | 0.66 |
| league points | 39.00 | 46.00 |
| league rank | 18.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 78.20 | 77.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 51.20 | 57.80 |
| rest days | 10.80 | 10.79 |
| scorer concentration | 0.26 | 0.17 |
| season ppg | 1.22 | 1.44 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 9.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.60 | 17.80 |
| skill v1 | 0.03 | 0.31 |
| solidity v1 | 1.32 | 1.60 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 2.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.70 | 3.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 3.80 |
| squad age | 26.95 | 24.95 |
| state index | 0.70 | 0.58 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.40 | 0.19 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.20 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.18 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.27 |
| travel km | — | 215.40 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.40 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 0.84 | 0.63 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.28 | 1.38 |