← EFL Championship 2025-26 · Sat, Feb 21, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: S. Martin
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Millwall win | 51% | 1.81 |
| Draw | 27% | 3.40 |
| Portsmouth win | 21% | 4.33 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Millwall −0.5 | 51% | 1.88 |
| Portsmouth −0.5 | 49% | 1.98 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 57% | 1.67 |
| Over | 43% | 2.20 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 17' | 🟨 | Millenic Alli · Portsmouth |
| 46' | ⚽ | Gustavo Caballero · Portsmouth |
| 55' | ⚽ | John Swift · Portsmouth |
| 60' | 🟨 | John Swift · Portsmouth |
| 64' | ⚽ | Casper De Norre · Millwall |
| 67' | ⚽ | Marlon Pack · Portsmouth |
| 75' | 🟨 | Tristan Crama · Millwall |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 6 | Shots | 15 |
| 3 | On target | 8 |
| 6 | Corners | 4 |
| 13 | Fouls | 8 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Millwall | Portsmouth |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.33 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.78 | 0.74 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.20 |
| venue | The Den |
| coach days |
| 447.00 |
| 1147.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.09 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 4.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 2.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 6.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.60 | 4.13 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.10 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.57 | 0.67 |
| elo | 1543.22 | 1449.16 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 33.82 | 14.39 |
| eye test v1 | 0.04 | 0.50 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.15 | 0.53 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 62.80 | 60.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.17 | 1.14 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.10 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.82 | 0.67 |
| league points | 56.00 | 36.00 |
| league rank | 3.00 | 21.00 |
| matches since blank | 7.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 69.40 | 73.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 47.20 | 56.20 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 3.80 |
| scorer concentration | 0.20 | 0.18 |
| season ppg | 1.75 | 1.16 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 8.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 15.60 | 16.20 |
| skill v1 | -0.40 | 0.28 |
| solidity v1 | 0.48 | 1.17 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 2.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.40 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 5.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 5.20 |
| state index | 0.69 | 0.17 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.86 | -0.18 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.29 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.40 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.82 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.76 | 1.79 |