← EFL Championship 2025-26 · Sat, Feb 21, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: O. Langford
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Middlesbrough win | 68% | 1.35 |
| Draw | 20% | 4.50 |
| Oxford win | 11% | 8.00 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Middlesbrough −1.25 | 52% | 1.85 |
| Oxford −1.25 | 48% | 2.00 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 55% | 1.73 |
| Under | 45% | 2.10 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 39' | 🟨 | Aidan Morris · Middlesbrough |
| 61' | 🟨 | Cameron Brannagan · Oxford |
| 75' | 🟨 | Matt Targett · Middlesbrough |
| 86' | 🟨 | Alexander Gilbert · Middlesbrough |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 24 | Shots | 13 |
| 7 | On target | 2 |
| 9 | Corners | 5 |
| 10 | Fouls | 10 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Middlesbrough | Oxford |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.37 | 0.25 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.42 | 0.24 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.44 | 0.28 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.53 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 3.40 |
| venue | Riverside Stadium |
| coach days |
| 204.00 |
| 204.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.08 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | -5.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 8.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 2.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.59 | 1.87 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.18 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.64 | 0.36 |
| elo | 1545.33 | 1384.60 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 28.13 | -18.30 |
| eye test v1 | 0.91 | -1.48 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.02 | -0.12 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 48.70 | 51.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 12.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | -1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.57 | 0.84 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.00 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.76 | 0.72 |
| league points | 61.00 | 28.00 |
| league rank | 2.00 | 23.00 |
| matches since blank | 7.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 4.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 84.80 | 60.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 63.40 | 31.60 |
| rest days | 4.79 | 10.80 |
| scorer concentration | 0.22 | 0.21 |
| season ppg | 1.91 | 0.88 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 6.80 | -6.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 15.60 | 7.00 |
| skill v1 | 1.08 | -2.29 |
| solidity v1 | 0.87 | -0.07 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.50 | 2.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.00 | 1.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 6.60 | 2.00 |
| squad age | 27.73 | — |
| state index | 0.60 | -1.11 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 1.05 | -1.47 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.18 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.23 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.80 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 0.88 | 1.49 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.41 | 0.80 |