← EFL Championship 2025-26 · Sat, Feb 21, 12:30 PM UTC · ref: G. Ward
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Stoke win | 42% | 2.25 |
| Leicester win | 29% | 3.20 |
| Draw | 29% | 3.20 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Leicester −0.25 | 52% | 1.85 |
| Stoke −0.25 | 48% | 2.00 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 55% | 1.73 |
| Over | 45% | 2.10 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 3' | ⚽ | Ben Wilmot · Stoke |
| 50' | 🟨 | Ben Pearson · Stoke |
| 52' | ⚽ | Divine Mukasa · Leicester |
| 70' | 🟨 | Sorba Thomas · Stoke |
| 70' | 🟨 | Luke Thomas · Leicester |
| 76' | ⚽ | Harry Winks · Leicester |
| 89' | ⚽ | Ben Wilmot · Stoke |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 11 | Shots | 15 |
| 3 | On target | 5 |
| 7 | Corners | 4 |
| 5 | Fouls | 6 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Stoke | Leicester |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.34 | 0.24 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.36 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.20 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.58 | 0.60 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.20 |
| venue | Bet365 Stadium |
| coach days |
| 416.00 |
| 204.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.05 | 0.16 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | -1.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 5.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 4.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.16 | 3.18 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.18 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.37 | 0.43 |
| elo | 1448.43 | 1422.15 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -32.79 | -39.56 |
| eye test v1 | -1.06 | -0.63 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.01 | 0.14 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 52.10 | 53.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | -1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.82 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.40 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.72 | 0.63 |
| league points | 43.00 | 38.00 |
| league rank | 14.00 | 20.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 20.00 |
| matches since win | 6.00 | 6.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 77.00 | 75.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 51.80 | 49.60 |
| rest days | 9.70 | 10.70 |
| scorer concentration | 0.32 | 0.23 |
| season ppg | 1.34 | 1.19 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -6.20 | -3.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 8.20 | 10.80 |
| skill v1 | -0.47 | -0.53 |
| solidity v1 | -0.19 | -0.56 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.20 | 2.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.67 | 2.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 2.80 |
| squad age | 28.32 | 27.60 |
| state index | -0.99 | -1.18 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.72 | 0.04 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.19 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.15 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.23 |
| travel km | — | 80.60 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.20 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.57 | 1.57 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 0.59 | 0.82 |