← EFL Championship 2025-26 · Sat, Feb 14, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: A. Kitchen
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Derby win | 38% | 2.45 |
| Swansea win | 34% | 2.75 |
| Draw | 29% | 3.20 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Derby +0 | 53% | 1.80 |
| Swansea +0 | 47% | 2.05 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 57% | 1.67 |
| Over | 43% | 2.20 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 27' | 🟨 | Patrick Agyemang · Derby |
| 44' | 🟨 | Marko Stamenic · Swansea |
| 47' | ⚽ | Rhian Brewster · Derby |
| 51' | 🟨 | Matthew Clarke · Derby |
| 67' | ⚽ | Patrick Agyemang · Derby |
| 76' | 🟨 | Ben Cabango · Swansea |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 11 | Shots | 15 |
| 6 | On target | 2 |
| 6 | Corners | 2 |
| 20 | Fouls | 12 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Derby | Swansea |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.36 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.74 | 0.61 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.60 |
| venue | Pride Park |
| coach days |
| 378.00 |
| 228.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.13 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.20 | 2.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 4.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 6.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 4.05 | 1.77 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.10 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.51 | 0.66 |
| elo | 1471.02 | 1473.36 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 39.99 | 33.16 |
| eye test v1 | -0.21 | 0.49 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.12 | 0.04 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 61.80 | 57.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.27 | 1.17 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 1.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.60 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.70 | 0.79 |
| league points | 45.00 | 42.00 |
| league rank | 12.00 | 15.00 |
| matches since blank | 20.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 77.20 | 76.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 47.80 | 53.80 |
| rest days | 7.10 | 6.12 |
| scorer concentration | 0.20 | 0.40 |
| season ppg | 1.45 | 1.35 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 7.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.80 | 17.00 |
| skill v1 | -0.13 | 0.28 |
| solidity v1 | 0.90 | 0.06 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 4.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.50 | 4.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.00 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 5.20 |
| squad age | 24.76 | 27.54 |
| state index | 0.32 | 0.46 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.44 | -0.14 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.29 |
| travel km | — | 220.60 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.20 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 0.96 | 1.34 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.38 | 1.63 |