← EFL Championship 2025-26 · Wed, Feb 11, 07:45 PM UTC · ref: A. Backhouse
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Stoke win | 35% | 2.65 |
| Charlton win | 34% | 2.75 |
| Draw | 31% | 3.00 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Stoke +0 | 51% | 1.88 |
| Charlton +0 | 49% | 1.98 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 62% | 1.53 |
| Over | 38% | 2.50 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 49' | 🟨 | Conor Coady · Charlton |
| 49' | 🟨 | Sorba Thomas · Stoke |
| 55' | 🟨 | Matt Godden · Charlton |
| 55' | 🟨 | Tatsuki Seko · Stoke |
| 78' | 🟨 | Steven N'Zonzi · Stoke |
| 81' | ⚽ | Tyreece Campbell · Charlton |
| 82' | 🟨 | Million Manhoef · Stoke |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 17 | Shots | 6 |
| 4 | On target | 2 |
| 6 | Corners | 5 |
| 5 | Fouls | 6 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Charlton | Stoke |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.40 | 0.27 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.38 | 0.29 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.69 | 0.63 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.80 |
| venue | The Valley |
| coach days | 741.00 | 406.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.05 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 3.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 4.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.88 | 2.16 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.07 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.37 | 0.44 |
| elo | 1506.37 | 1455.34 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -8.73 | -28.43 |
| eye test v1 | -0.43 | -0.92 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.24 | -0.05 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 55.50 | 52.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.74 | 0.70 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.71 | 0.67 |
| league points | 36.00 | 43.00 |
| league rank | 19.00 | 14.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 5.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 76.20 | 78.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 52.20 | 53.60 |
| rest days | 4.99 | 4.20 |
| scorer concentration | 0.24 | 0.32 |
| season ppg | 1.20 | 1.39 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -7.40 | -3.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.20 | 9.40 |
| skill v1 | -0.29 | -0.24 |
| solidity v1 | -0.22 | 0.41 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.40 | 3.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 2.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 2.80 |
| squad age | — | 28.32 |
| state index | -0.26 | -0.65 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.45 | 0.78 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.19 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.20 | 0.16 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.18 |
| travel km | — | 224.80 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.60 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.81 | 1.16 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 0.92 | 0.65 |