← EFL Championship 2025-26 · Sat, Feb 7, 03:01 PM UTC · ref: J. Busby
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Birmingham win | 55% | 1.66 |
| Draw | 24% | 3.75 |
| Leicester win | 20% | 4.50 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Leicester −0.75 | 51% | 1.90 |
| Birmingham −0.75 | 49% | 1.95 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 51% | 1.90 |
| Under | 49% | 1.95 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 3' | ⚽ | Ibrahim Osman · Birmingham |
| 5' | 🟨 | Joe Aribo · Leicester |
| 21' | ⚽ | Abdul Fatawu Issahaku · Leicester |
| 32' | 🟥 | Bobby Decordova-Reid · Leicester |
| 67' | ⚽ | Jay Stansfield · Birmingham |
| 84' | 🟨 | Asmir Begović · Leicester |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 22 | Shots | 7 |
| 6 | On target | 2 |
| 10 | Corners | 1 |
| 11 | Fouls | 10 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Birmingham | Leicester |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.18 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.37 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.77 | 0.60 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.60 |
| venue | St. Andrew's @ Knighthead Park |
| coach days | 616.00 | 190.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.11 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 3.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 5.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.68 | 3.03 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.14 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.55 | 0.48 |
| elo | 1584.98 | 1437.83 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 20.35 | -21.40 |
| eye test v1 | -0.68 | -0.13 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.13 | 0.36 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 50.20 | 55.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 11.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.92 | 0.82 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.45 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.67 | 0.62 |
| league points | 42.00 | 38.00 |
| league rank | 14.00 | 17.00 |
| matches since blank | 5.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 20.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 4.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 70.00 | 80.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 47.20 | 54.40 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.10 |
| scorer concentration | 0.18 | 0.26 |
| season ppg | 1.40 | 1.27 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 2.40 | -0.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 14.40 | 12.80 |
| skill v1 | -0.74 | 0.17 |
| solidity v1 | 0.51 | -0.44 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 4.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.40 | 2.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.67 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 3.60 |
| squad age | 25.43 | 26.82 |
| state index | 0.49 | -0.77 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.53 | 0.35 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.25 |
| travel km | — | 51.60 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.40 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.06 | 1.58 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.17 | 1.08 |