← EFL Championship 2025-26 · Sat, Feb 7, 12:31 PM UTC · ref: E. Bell
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Southampton win | 50% | 1.86 |
| Draw | 25% | 3.70 |
| Watford win | 25% | 3.75 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Watford −0.5 | 50% | 1.93 |
| Southampton −0.5 | 50% | 1.93 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 53% | 1.80 |
| Under | 47% | 2.00 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 53' | 🟨 | Taylor Harwood-Bellis · Southampton |
| 66' | 🟨 | Giorgi Chakvetadze · Watford |
| 70' | ⚽ | Cyle Larin · Southampton |
| 75' | 🟨 | James Bree · Southampton |
| 90' | 🟨 | Shea Charles · Southampton |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 6 | Shots | 11 |
| 4 | On target | 2 |
| 3 | Corners | 9 |
| 10 | Fouls | 10 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Southampton | Watford |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.41 | 0.23 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.37 | 0.26 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.71 | 0.51 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 2.40 |
| venue | St. Mary's Stadium |
| coach days | 221.00 | 37.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.03 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | -0.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 6.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 6.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.65 | 2.23 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.11 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.49 | 0.59 |
| elo | 1448.63 | 1458.42 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 8.93 | -35.51 |
| eye test v1 | 0.25 | -0.39 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.08 | 0.08 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 58.10 | 58.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | -0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.57 | 0.99 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.76 | 0.69 |
| league points | 40.00 | 44.00 |
| league rank | 14.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since blank | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 5.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 76.00 | 77.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 51.60 | 54.40 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 3.70 |
| scorer concentration | 0.23 | 0.19 |
| season ppg | 1.33 | 1.47 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 4.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 14.00 | 14.20 |
| skill v1 | 0.11 | -0.10 |
| solidity v1 | 0.26 | 0.35 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.60 | 3.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 3.60 |
| squad age | 27.37 | 27.96 |
| state index | -0.18 | -0.57 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.12 | 0.12 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.21 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.26 |
| travel km | — | 107.60 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.80 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.30 | 1.21 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.59 | 0.92 |