← EFL Championship 2025-26 · Sat, Feb 7, 12:31 PM UTC · ref: J. Smith
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Ipswich win | 49% | 1.91 |
| Draw | 27% | 3.50 |
| Derby win | 25% | 3.75 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Derby +0.5 | 51% | 1.90 |
| Ipswich +0.5 | 49% | 1.95 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 53% | 1.80 |
| Over | 47% | 2.05 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 8' | ⚽ (og) | Lewis Travis · Ipswich |
| 13' | 🟨 | Lewis Travis · Derby |
| 30' | 🟨 | Jack Taylor · Ipswich |
| 33' | 🟨 | Anis Mehmeti · Ipswich |
| 58' | 🟨 | Danny Batth · Derby |
| 68' | ⚽ (pen) | Rhian Brewster · Derby |
| 77' | ⚽ | Leif Davis · Ipswich |
| 83' | 🟨 | Kasey McAteer · Ipswich |
| 90' | 🟨 | Lewis Travis · Derby |
| 90' | 🟥 | Lewis Travis · Derby |
| 90' | 🟨 | Darnell Furlong · Ipswich |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 9 | Shots | 13 |
| 1 | On target | 5 |
| 3 | Corners | 7 |
| 9 | Fouls | 14 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Derby | Ipswich |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.32 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.35 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.79 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.40 |
| venue | Pride Park |
| coach days | 371.00 | 1529.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.12 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 4.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 3.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 7.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 4.03 | 2.20 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.08 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.54 | 0.59 |
| elo | 1640.15 | 1716.50 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 34.03 | -0.94 |
| eye test v1 | 0.14 | 0.67 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.22 | -0.32 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 62.20 | 62.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.34 | 0.97 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.60 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.64 | — |
| league points | 45.00 | 51.00 |
| league rank | 7.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since blank | 20.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 77.00 | 80.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 47.40 | 57.80 |
| rest days | 7.69 | 6.90 |
| scorer concentration | 0.20 | 0.22 |
| season ppg | 1.50 | 1.76 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 4.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.60 | 14.80 |
| skill v1 | -0.12 | 0.97 |
| solidity v1 | 1.12 | 0.75 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 3.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.80 | 5.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 5.20 |
| squad age | 23.82 | 27.82 |
| state index | 0.68 | 0.54 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.59 | 0.46 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.30 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.26 |
| travel km | — | 199.90 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.00 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 0.86 | 1.05 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.43 | 2.03 |