← EFL Championship 2025-26 · Tue, Feb 3, 07:45 PM UTC · ref: L. Doughty
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Hull win | 43% | 2.15 |
| Watford win | 30% | 3.10 |
| Draw | 27% | 3.50 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Watford −0.25 | 54% | 1.78 |
| Hull −0.25 | 46% | 2.10 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 53% | 1.80 |
| Over | 47% | 2.00 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 34' | 🟨 | Stephen Mfuni · Watford |
| 45' | 🟨 | Jeremy Ngakia · Watford |
| 72' | 🟨 | Mamadou Doumbia · Watford |
| 73' | 🟨 | Lewie Coyle · Hull |
| 79' | 🟨 | Ryan Giles · Hull |
| 82' | 🟨 | John Lundstram · Hull |
| 87' | 🟨 | Oliver McBurnie · Hull |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 6 | Shots | 16 |
| 3 | On target | 2 |
| 7 | Corners | 5 |
| 12 | Fouls | 9 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Hull | Watford |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.36 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.52 | 0.28 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.39 | 0.33 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.71 | 0.57 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 2.00 |
| venue | MKM Stadium |
| coach days | 217.00 | 33.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.07 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.20 | -0.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 7.00 | 6.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 5.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.50 | 2.31 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.04 | 0.11 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.46 | 0.58 |
| elo | 1522.83 | 1454.90 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 34.66 | -18.99 |
| eye test v1 | 0.16 | -0.08 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.76 | 0.08 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 48.40 | 55.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 12.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.95 | 0.92 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.45 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.80 | 0.67 |
| league points | 53.00 | 43.00 |
| league rank | 3.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since blank | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 4.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 69.60 | 77.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 39.40 | 51.40 |
| rest days | 3.20 | 3.20 |
| scorer concentration | 0.21 | 0.19 |
| season ppg | 1.83 | 1.48 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -2.60 | 3.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.60 | 13.60 |
| skill v1 | -0.99 | -0.17 |
| solidity v1 | -0.22 | 0.39 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.00 | 4.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.67 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 4.40 |
| squad age | 28.81 | 27.96 |
| state index | 0.42 | -0.38 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.42 | -0.08 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.34 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.27 |
| travel km | — | 233.10 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.60 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.23 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.37 | 1.05 |