← EFL Championship 2025-26 · Sat, Jan 31, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: M. Corlett
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Watford win | 45% | 2.10 |
| Draw | 29% | 3.25 |
| Swansea win | 27% | 3.50 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Watford −0.25 | 53% | 1.83 |
| Swansea −0.25 | 47% | 2.03 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 57% | 1.67 |
| Over | 43% | 2.20 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 7' | 🟨 | Cameron Burgess · Swansea |
| 53' | 🟨 | Imrân Louza · Watford |
| 55' | ⚽ | Marko Stamenic · Swansea |
| 80' | ⚽ | Josh Key · Swansea |
| 90' | 🟥 | Nestory Irankunda · Watford |
| 90' | 🟨 | Liam Cullen · Swansea |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 17 | Shots | 14 |
| 5 | On target | 7 |
| 5 | Corners | 8 |
| 10 | Fouls | 11 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Watford | Swansea |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.34 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.30 | 0.25 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.30 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.61 | 0.59 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.20 |
| venue | Vicarage Road |
| coach days | 30.00 | 214.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | -1.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 6.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 4.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.32 | 1.29 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.12 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.57 | 0.58 |
| elo | 1473.54 | 1447.42 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 9.49 | 8.44 |
| eye test v1 | -0.40 | 0.04 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.07 | -0.13 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 54.70 | 56.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.97 | 0.79 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.68 | 0.78 |
| league points | 43.00 | 36.00 |
| league rank | 9.00 | 16.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 76.80 | 77.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 49.20 | 56.80 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.19 | 0.43 |
| season ppg | 1.54 | 1.24 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 3.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.80 | 15.00 |
| skill v1 | -0.37 | 0.22 |
| solidity v1 | 1.21 | -0.21 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 5.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.00 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 4.40 |
| squad age | 27.05 | 27.03 |
| state index | 0.02 | -0.16 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.02 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.27 |
| travel km | — | 243.70 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.60 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 0.89 | 1.37 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 0.94 | 1.23 |