← EFL Championship 2025-26 · Sat, Jan 31, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: S. Martin
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Birmingham win | 48% | 1.96 |
| Draw | 26% | 3.60 |
| Oxford win | 26% | 3.70 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Oxford +0.5 | 52% | 1.85 |
| Birmingham +0.5 | 48% | 2.00 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 53% | 1.80 |
| Over | 47% | 2.00 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 22' | 🟨 | Brodie Spencer · Oxford |
| 23' | ⚽ (og) | Myles Peart-Harris · Birmingham |
| 41' | 🟨 | Jamie McDonnell · Oxford |
| 57' | 🟨 | Jay Stansfield · Birmingham |
| 61' | 🟨 | Tomoki Iwata · Birmingham |
| 66' | ⚽ | Marvin Ducksch · Birmingham |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 10 | Shots | 11 |
| 4 | On target | 2 |
| 4 | Corners | 4 |
| 7 | Fouls | 12 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Oxford | Birmingham |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.26 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.27 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.27 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.53 | 0.73 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.40 |
| venue | Kassam Stadium |
| coach days | 183.00 | 609.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.11 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -4.40 | 0.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 7.40 | 4.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 5.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.49 | 3.75 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.11 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.44 | 0.51 |
| elo | 1536.96 | 1637.85 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 2.26 | 4.06 |
| eye test v1 | -1.27 | -0.34 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.05 | 0.17 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 54.40 | 50.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.82 | 0.88 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.40 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.76 | 0.67 |
| league points | 27.00 | 39.00 |
| league rank | 23.00 | 14.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 66.40 | 69.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 41.00 | 42.60 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.22 | 0.15 |
| season ppg | 0.96 | 1.34 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -3.40 | 0.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.00 | 13.40 |
| skill v1 | -1.29 | -0.89 |
| solidity v1 | 0.95 | 0.07 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.90 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.00 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 3.20 |
| squad age | — | 27.47 |
| state index | -0.06 | 0.17 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.78 | -1.32 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.34 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.33 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.80 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.24 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.09 | 1.28 |