← EFL Championship 2025-26 · Sat, Jan 31, 12:30 PM UTC · ref: F. Hallam
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Southampton win | 36% | 2.55 |
| Stoke win | 36% | 2.57 |
| Draw | 28% | 3.25 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Southampton +0 | 50% | 1.93 |
| Stoke +0 | 50% | 1.93 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 51% | 1.88 |
| Over | 49% | 1.98 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 10' | ⚽ | Finn Azaz · Southampton |
| 30' | 🟨 | Finn Azaz · Southampton |
| 52' | ⚽ | Flynn Downes · Southampton |
| 71' | 🟨 | Jack Stephens · Southampton |
| 72' | 🟨 | Daniel Peretz · Southampton |
| 83' | 🟨 | Favour Fawunmi · Stoke |
| 90' | 🟨 | Bosun Lawal · Stoke |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 10 | Shots | 11 |
| 3 | On target | 4 |
| 4 | Corners | 5 |
| 8 | Fouls | 18 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Stoke | Southampton |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.33 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.59 | 0.70 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.80 |
| venue | Bet365 Stadium |
| coach days | 395.00 | 214.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.06 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | -0.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 6.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 5.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.83 | 2.00 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.04 | 0.10 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.48 | 0.48 |
| elo | 1475.03 | 1429.20 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 18.53 | -10.96 |
| eye test v1 | -0.41 | 0.06 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.02 | 0.09 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 56.70 | 57.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | -0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.79 | 0.82 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.66 | 0.75 |
| league points | 42.00 | 37.00 |
| league rank | 11.00 | 15.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 76.60 | 77.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 52.80 | 55.40 |
| rest days | 6.90 | 6.02 |
| scorer concentration | 0.32 | 0.24 |
| season ppg | 1.45 | 1.28 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -1.60 | -0.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.00 | 14.20 |
| skill v1 | -0.10 | 0.26 |
| solidity v1 | 0.84 | 0.13 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.10 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.67 | 4.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 4.20 |
| squad age | 28.32 | 26.94 |
| state index | -0.05 | -0.59 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.36 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.19 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.18 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.26 |
| travel km | — | 237.70 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.40 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.08 | 1.42 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.14 | 1.40 |