← EFL Championship 2025-26 · Fri, Jan 30, 08:00 PM UTC · ref: T. Nield
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Bristol City win | 49% | 1.86 |
| Draw | 26% | 3.50 |
| Derby win | 24% | 3.80 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Derby −0.5 | 51% | 1.90 |
| Bristol City −0.5 | 49% | 1.95 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 50% | 1.91 |
| Under | 50% | 1.91 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 11' | 🟨 | David Ozoh · Derby |
| 13' | ⚽ | Rhian Brewster · Derby |
| 16' | ⚽ | Ben Brereton Díaz · Derby |
| 36' | ⚽ | Bobby Clark · Derby |
| 66' | ⚽ | Patrick Agyemang · Derby |
| 80' | 🟨 | Cameron Pring · Bristol City |
| 88' | ⚽ | Lars-Jørgen Salvesen · Derby |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 3 |
| 7 | Shots | 17 |
| 1 | On target | 7 |
| 4 | Corners | 1 |
| 9 | Fouls | 15 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Bristol City | Derby |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.38 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.25 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.31 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.20 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.61 | 0.76 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.60 |
| venue | Ashton Gate Stadium |
| coach days |
| 29.00 |
| 363.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.12 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | 0.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 5.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 5.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.98 | 4.33 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.07 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.58 | 0.45 |
| elo | 1498.07 | 1455.25 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -12.44 | 28.22 |
| eye test v1 | -0.67 | -0.29 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.89 | 0.07 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 52.40 | 60.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.58 | 0.67 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.55 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.79 | 0.68 |
| league points | 43.00 | 42.00 |
| league rank | 9.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 19.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 81.20 | 76.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 57.20 | 46.00 |
| rest days | 6.21 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.20 | 0.23 |
| season ppg | 1.48 | 1.45 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 3.00 | -1.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.00 | 11.60 |
| skill v1 | 0.18 | -0.35 |
| solidity v1 | 1.16 | 0.67 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.90 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.00 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 3.60 |
| squad age | — | 24.76 |
| state index | 0.16 | 0.12 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.98 | -0.37 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.15 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.26 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 0.88 | 1.08 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 0.81 | 1.27 |