← EFL Championship 2025-26 · Sun, Jan 25, 12:00 PM UTC · ref: L. Smith
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Southampton win | 45% | 2.05 |
| Portsmouth win | 29% | 3.20 |
| Draw | 26% | 3.50 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Southampton +0.25 | 53% | 1.83 |
| Portsmouth +0.25 | 47% | 2.03 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 53% | 1.83 |
| Under | 47% | 2.03 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 57' | ⚽ | Leo Scienza · Southampton |
| 70' | 🟨 | Zak Swanson · Portsmouth |
| 70' | 🟨 | Flynn Downes · Southampton |
| 77' | ⚽ | Ebou Adams · Portsmouth |
| 82' | 🟨 | Ebou Adams · Portsmouth |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 14 | Shots | 6 |
| 3 | On target | 4 |
| 4 | Corners | 2 |
| 9 | Fouls | 14 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Portsmouth | Southampton |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.31 | 0.28 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.28 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.59 | 0.70 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.00 |
| venue | Fratton Park |
| coach days |
| 1120.00 |
| 208.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.04 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | 0.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 5.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 6.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.42 | 1.69 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.09 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.46 | 0.50 |
| elo | 1434.77 | 1427.28 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 9.36 | -7.37 |
| eye test v1 | -1.20 | 0.20 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.09 | 0.00 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 52.40 | 57.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | -0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.79 | 1.03 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.64 | 0.78 |
| league points | 29.00 | 36.00 |
| league rank | 22.00 | 15.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 77.40 | 82.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 50.40 | 58.80 |
| rest days | 3.68 | 3.68 |
| scorer concentration | 0.23 | 0.25 |
| season ppg | 1.12 | 1.29 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -2.00 | -0.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.00 | 15.60 |
| skill v1 | -0.57 | 0.76 |
| solidity v1 | 0.26 | 0.06 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.30 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.00 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 4.40 |
| squad age | — | 27.21 |
| state index | -0.21 | -0.54 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.66 | 0.49 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.20 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.21 | 0.32 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.27 |
| travel km | — | 26.00 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.20 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 0.92 | 1.43 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 0.50 | 1.44 |