← EFL Championship 2025-26 · Sat, Jan 24, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: J. Smith
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Hull win | 43% | 2.15 |
| Draw | 29% | 3.20 |
| Swansea win | 27% | 3.40 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Swansea −0.25 | 50% | 1.93 |
| Hull −0.25 | 50% | 1.93 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 55% | 1.73 |
| Over | 45% | 2.10 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 22' | 🟨 | Cameron Burgess · Swansea |
| 24' | ⚽ (pen) | Oliver McBurnie · Hull |
| 32' | 🟨 | Akin Famewo · Hull |
| 39' | ⚽ | Regan Slater · Hull |
| 48' | 🟨 | Liam Millar · Hull |
| 59' | ⚽ | Liam Cullen · Swansea |
| 70' | 🟨 | Josh Key · Swansea |
| 90' | 🟨 | Kieran Dowell · Hull |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 10 | Shots | 16 |
| 7 | On target | 4 |
| 6 | Corners | 7 |
| 13 | Fouls | 6 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Hull | Swansea |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.31 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.35 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.71 | 0.65 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 1.60 |
| venue | MKM Stadium |
| coach days | 207.00 | 207.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.10 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.80 | -1.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.80 | 5.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 4.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.83 | 1.99 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.08 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.41 | 0.56 |
| elo | 1506.94 | 1454.29 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 28.92 | 26.76 |
| eye test v1 | -0.77 | -0.05 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.26 | 0.13 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 47.70 | 59.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.95 | 0.82 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.45 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.78 | 0.81 |
| league points | 47.00 | 36.00 |
| league rank | 5.00 | 16.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 72.60 | 75.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 40.20 | 53.40 |
| rest days | 3.80 | 3.80 |
| scorer concentration | 0.23 | 0.44 |
| season ppg | 1.74 | 1.29 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -5.40 | 2.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.80 | 13.80 |
| skill v1 | -0.99 | -0.25 |
| solidity v1 | -0.29 | 0.47 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.70 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 4.60 |
| squad age | 29.38 | 27.28 |
| state index | 0.23 | 0.08 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.82 | -0.01 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.31 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.26 |
| travel km | — | 335.30 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.60 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.67 | 1.10 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.01 | 1.00 |