← EFL Championship 2025-26 · Sat, Jan 24, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: J. Bell
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Birmingham win | 55% | 1.68 |
| Draw | 24% | 3.80 |
| Stoke win | 21% | 4.50 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Stoke −0.75 | 51% | 1.88 |
| Birmingham −0.75 | 49% | 1.98 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 51% | 1.88 |
| Under | 49% | 1.98 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 42' | ⚽ | Tomoki Iwata · Birmingham |
| 67' | 🟨 | Jay Stansfield · Birmingham |
| 71' | ⚽ (og) | Phil Neumann · Stoke |
| 80' | 🟨 | Lamine Cissé · Stoke |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 18 | Shots | 7 |
| 5 | On target | 1 |
| 6 | Corners | 6 |
| 7 | Fouls | 10 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Birmingham | Stoke |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.37 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.72 | 0.65 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.00 |
| venue | St. Andrew's @ Knighthead Park |
| coach days | 602.00 | 388.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.09 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 1.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 3.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 5.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.81 | 1.87 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.48 | 0.49 |
| elo | 1640.40 | 1609.99 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 4.29 | 4.93 |
| eye test v1 | 0.04 | -0.18 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.15 | 0.36 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 51.50 | 54.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.88 | 0.82 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.40 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.67 | 0.65 |
| league points | 38.00 | 41.00 |
| league rank | 13.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 73.20 | 77.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 48.20 | 52.80 |
| rest days | 3.80 | 2.79 |
| scorer concentration | 0.16 | 0.32 |
| season ppg | 1.36 | 1.46 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | -1.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.80 | 11.00 |
| skill v1 | -0.26 | 0.00 |
| solidity v1 | -0.02 | 0.73 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.60 | 3.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.33 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| squad age | 26.85 | 24.47 |
| state index | 0.34 | 0.20 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.79 | 0.40 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.19 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.22 |
| travel km | — | 60.60 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.20 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.33 | 1.17 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.47 | 1.18 |