← EFL Championship 2025-26 · Sat, Jan 24, 12:30 PM UTC · ref: G. Ward
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Millwall win | 55% | 1.66 |
| Draw | 26% | 3.50 |
| Charlton win | 19% | 4.75 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Charlton −0.75 | 52% | 1.85 |
| Millwall −0.75 | 48% | 2.00 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 55% | 1.73 |
| Over | 45% | 2.10 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 7' | ⚽ (og) | Kayne Ramsay · Millwall |
| 26' | 🟨 | Karoy Anderson · Charlton |
| 68' | 🟨 | Tristan Crama · Millwall |
| 81' | ⚽ | Caleb Taylor · Millwall |
| 90' | ⚽ | Luke Cundle · Millwall |
| 90' | ⚽ | Aidomo Emakhu · Millwall |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 23 | Shots | 3 |
| 6 | On target | 1 |
| 6 | Corners | 3 |
| 8 | Fouls | 13 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Millwall | Charlton |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.37 | 0.29 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.37 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.30 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.71 | 0.64 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 2.60 |
| venue | The Den |
| coach days | 419.00 | 723.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.10 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 4.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 3.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 7.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.33 | 2.75 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.05 | 0.09 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.49 | 0.46 |
| elo | 1503.31 | 1509.39 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 28.90 | -16.64 |
| eye test v1 | -0.06 | -0.29 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.21 | 0.30 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 59.60 | 53.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.82 | 0.47 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.76 | 0.73 |
| league points | 46.00 | 32.00 |
| league rank | 5.00 | 17.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 68.80 | 72.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 41.00 | 50.20 |
| rest days | 3.70 | 3.70 |
| scorer concentration | 0.20 | 0.22 |
| season ppg | 1.64 | 1.19 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | -2.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.80 | 13.00 |
| skill v1 | -0.97 | -0.46 |
| solidity v1 | 0.44 | 0.11 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 4.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.50 | 3.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.67 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 3.80 |
| state index | 0.33 | -0.37 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.33 | -0.35 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.34 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.27 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.40 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.24 | 1.12 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.36 | 1.18 |