← EFL Championship 2025-26 · Wed, Jan 21, 08:00 PM UTC · ref: Adam Herczeg, England
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Middlesbrough win | 40% | 2.32 |
| Stoke win | 32% | 2.85 |
| Draw | 28% | 3.30 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Stoke +0.25 | 54% | 1.78 |
| Middlesbrough +0.25 | 46% | 2.10 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 53% | 1.80 |
| Over | 47% | 2.05 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 15' | ⚽ | Tomáš Rigo · Stoke |
| 45' | 🟨 | Bosun Lawal · Stoke |
| 48' | ⚽ | Alan Browne · Middlesbrough |
| 52' | 🟨 | Luke Ayling · Middlesbrough |
| 59' | ⚽ | Tommy Conway · Middlesbrough |
| 66' | 🟨 | Ben Pearson · Stoke |
| 77' | 🟨 | Bosun Lawal · Stoke |
| 77' | 🟥 | Bosun Lawal · Stoke |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 10 | Shots | 16 |
| 4 | On target | 7 |
| 5 | Corners | 4 |
| 11 | Fouls | 10 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Stoke | Middlesbrough |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.35 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.29 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.62 | 0.64 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.00 |
| venue | Bet365 Stadium |
| coach days |
| 385.00 |
| 173.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.10 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 3.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 3.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 7.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.89 | 3.69 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.03 | 0.11 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.54 | 0.60 |
| elo | 1481.23 | 1517.20 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 12.34 | -4.78 |
| eye test v1 | -0.22 | 0.25 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.41 | 0.08 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 54.70 | 45.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.82 | 1.69 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.64 | 0.71 |
| league points | 41.00 | 49.00 |
| league rank | 9.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 78.40 | 85.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 56.40 | 61.00 |
| rest days | 4.21 | 5.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.33 | 0.26 |
| season ppg | 1.52 | 1.81 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 6.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.80 | 16.60 |
| skill v1 | 0.24 | 0.97 |
| solidity v1 | 1.16 | 0.82 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.40 | 4.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 4.40 |
| squad age | 28.32 | 28.62 |
| state index | 0.07 | 0.22 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.64 | 0.73 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.18 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.27 |
| travel km | — | 187.70 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.80 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.05 | 0.98 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.23 | 1.35 |