← EFL Championship 2025-26 · Wed, Jan 21, 07:45 PM UTC · ref: Ben Toner, England
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Watford win | 53% | 1.76 |
| Draw | 26% | 3.60 |
| Portsmouth win | 21% | 4.50 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Watford −0.5 | 53% | 1.78 |
| Portsmouth −0.5 | 47% | 2.03 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 55% | 1.73 |
| Over | 45% | 2.10 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 51' | 🟨 | Andre Dozzell · Portsmouth |
| 73' | ⚽ | Adrian Segecic · Portsmouth |
| 79' | ⚽ | Mamadou Doumbia · Watford |
| 90' | 🟨 | Nestory Irankunda · Watford |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 15 | Shots | 10 |
| 4 | On target | 2 |
| 8 | Corners | 7 |
| 9 | Fouls | 12 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Watford | Portsmouth |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.35 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.36 | 0.32 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.59 | 0.62 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.40 |
| venue | Vicarage Road |
| coach days |
| 20.00 |
| 1116.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.12 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | -0.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 5.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 5.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.94 | 2.41 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.05 | 0.13 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.55 | 0.43 |
| elo | 1476.27 | 1431.85 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 33.89 | 8.35 |
| eye test v1 | -0.35 | -0.73 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.10 | -0.10 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 56.80 | 52.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 12.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.97 | 1.05 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.75 | 0.65 |
| league points | 41.00 | 28.00 |
| league rank | 7.00 | 22.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 79.00 | 76.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 47.00 | 52.40 |
| rest days | 4.30 | 4.20 |
| scorer concentration | 0.21 | 0.19 |
| season ppg | 1.58 | 1.12 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 1.80 | -2.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.60 | 8.80 |
| skill v1 | -0.28 | -0.37 |
| solidity v1 | 1.50 | 0.39 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.10 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 3.40 |
| squad age | 27.05 | — |
| state index | 0.42 | -0.39 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.06 | 0.57 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.21 | 0.17 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.19 |
| travel km | — | 105.60 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.80 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 0.77 | 0.90 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.02 | 0.72 |