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West Brom 0–5 Norwich

← EFL Championship 2025-26 · Tue, Jan 20, 07:45 PM UTC · ref: Elliot Bell, England

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
West Brom win48%1.96
Draw27%3.50
Norwich win26%3.60

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Norwich −0.553%1.80
West Brom −0.547%2.05

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under53%1.80
Over47%2.00

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

14'🟨Callum Styles · West Brom
16'⚽Oscar Schwartau · Norwich
23'🟨Krystian Bielik · West Brom
49'⚽Ali Ahmed · Norwich
69'⚽Anis Ben Slimane · Norwich
72'🟨Michael Johnston · West Brom
73'⚽Ben Chrisene · Norwich
87'🟨Vladan Kovačević · Norwich
89'⚽Mathias Kvistgaarden · Norwich

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score1
13Shots9
2On target7
10Corners2
13Fouls9
3Yellow cards1
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricWest BromNorwich
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.370.30
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.530.34
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.430.30
blown lead rate (last 20)0.100.10
box share (last 5)0.690.68
cards avg (last 5)1.601.60
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueThe Hawthorns
coach days
172.00
172.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.050.00
congestion 21d3.003.00
conversion (last 5)0.090.11
corner diff avg (last 5)2.80-1.20
corners against avg (last 5)3.405.20
corners for avg (last 5)6.204.00
corners volatility (last 10)2.562.59
defensive leak (last 5)0.250.09
dominance (last 5)0.630.49
elo1420.611404.49
elo momentum (last 5)-26.4618.64
eye test v10.55-0.76
eye trend v10.25-0.08
first sub minute (last 10)59.9052.90
form points (last 5)3.009.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.600.00
goals against avg (last 5)1.801.00
goals for avg (last 5)1.201.00
goals volatility (last 10)0.970.97
h2 goals (last 10)1.200.80
h2h win rate (last 5)0.500.50
ht lead rate (last 20)0.200.15
keeper form v10.630.66
league points31.0027.00
league rank19.0022.00
matches since blank2.001.00
matches since clean sheet6.004.00
matches since win3.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)80.8077.80
possession avg (last 5)49.4052.20
rest days3.993.20
scorer concentration0.270.38
season ppg1.151.00
shot diff avg (last 5)5.20-1.00
shots for avg (last 5)13.609.60
skill v10.10-0.16
solidity v11.031.23
sot against avg (last 5)2.802.20
sot for avg (last 10)5.703.70
sot for avg (last 3)7.003.00
sot for avg (last 5)5.803.00
squad age27.5129.13
state index-0.54-0.12
sterile dominance v1-0.130.64
threat rate (last 10)0.300.24
threat rate (last 3)0.290.17
threat rate (last 5)0.280.18
travel km—221.60
venue ppg (last 5)1.801.60
xg against avg (last 5)0.660.86
xg for avg (last 5)1.260.96