← EFL Championship 2025-26 · Tue, Jan 20, 07:45 PM UTC · ref: Anthony Backhouse, England
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Swansea win | 54% | 1.71 |
| Draw | 26% | 3.50 |
| Blackburn win | 19% | 4.75 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Swansea −0.5 | 54% | 1.75 |
| Blackburn −0.5 | 46% | 2.05 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 57% | 1.67 |
| Over | 43% | 2.20 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 11' | 🟨 | Connor O'Riordan · Blackburn |
| 21' | ⚽ | Žan Vipotnik · Swansea |
| 35' | ⚽ | Mathias Jørgensen · Blackburn |
| 45' | 🟨 | Brandon Powell · Blackburn |
| 50' | ⚽ (og) | Connor O'Riordan · Swansea |
| 63' | ⚽ | Žan Vipotnik · Swansea |
| 85' | 🟨 | Ronald · Swansea |
| 90' | 🟨 | Cameron Burgess · Swansea |
| 90' | 🟨 | Adam Forshaw · Blackburn |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 14 | Shots | 5 |
| 4 | On target | 2 |
| 4 | Corners | 3 |
| 10 | Fouls | 14 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Swansea | Blackburn |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.37 | 0.21 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.33 | 0.13 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.20 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.66 | 0.62 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.80 |
| venue | Swansea.com Stadium |
| coach days |
| 203.00 |
| 172.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.02 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.80 | -0.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 5.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 4.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.38 | 2.41 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.05 | 0.13 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.49 | 0.58 |
| elo | 1442.29 | 1431.91 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 10.81 | -18.82 |
| eye test v1 | -0.15 | -0.78 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.01 | -0.05 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 59.20 | 56.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | -1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.63 | 0.79 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.30 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.80 | 0.64 |
| league points | 33.00 | 28.00 |
| league rank | 16.00 | 20.00 |
| matches since blank | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 5.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 77.00 | 74.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 53.80 | 51.20 |
| rest days | 3.09 | 3.30 |
| scorer concentration | 0.40 | 0.32 |
| season ppg | 1.22 | 1.08 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | 3.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.20 | 13.20 |
| skill v1 | -0.07 | -0.31 |
| solidity v1 | 0.13 | 0.23 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.40 | 2.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.67 | 2.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 2.60 |
| squad age | 26.55 | — |
| state index | 0.02 | -0.71 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.19 | -0.04 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.25 |
| travel km | — | 251.60 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 0.60 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.16 | 1.27 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.07 | 1.15 |