← EFL Championship 2025-26 · Tue, Jan 20, 07:45 PM UTC · ref: James Linington, England
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Charlton win | 36% | 2.55 |
| Derby win | 33% | 2.85 |
| Draw | 31% | 3.00 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Charlton +0 | 53% | 1.80 |
| Derby +0 | 47% | 2.05 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 62% | 1.53 |
| Over | 38% | 2.50 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 17' | ⚽ (og) | Macaulay Gillesphey · Derby |
| 31' | 🟨 | Matthew Clarke · Derby |
| 47' | 🟨 | Patrick Agyemang · Derby |
| 60' | ⚽ | Bobby Clark · Derby |
| 67' | ⚽ | Tyreece Campbell · Charlton |
| 85' | 🟨 | Matthew Clarke · Derby |
| 85' | 🟥 | Matthew Clarke · Derby |
| 90' | 🟨 | Lewis Travis · Derby |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 11 | Shots | 15 |
| 4 | On target | 5 |
| 4 | Corners | 0 |
| 12 | Fouls | 14 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Charlton | Derby |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.30 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.29 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.70 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 2.40 |
| venue | The Valley |
| coach days | 719.00 | 353.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.12 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 0.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 6.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 8.00 | 6.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.31 | 3.50 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.09 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.42 | 0.42 |
| elo | 1573.42 | 1608.55 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -1.21 | 7.82 |
| eye test v1 | -0.77 | -0.71 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.32 | 0.20 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 54.80 | 63.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.57 | 0.63 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.45 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.69 | 0.63 |
| league points | 32.00 | 38.00 |
| league rank | 17.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since blank | 4.00 | 17.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 70.40 | 71.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 45.60 | 42.80 |
| rest days | 3.20 | 3.20 |
| scorer concentration | 0.23 | 0.25 |
| season ppg | 1.23 | 1.41 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -3.80 | -4.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.60 | 10.40 |
| skill v1 | -0.85 | -0.85 |
| solidity v1 | 0.27 | 0.10 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.90 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| squad age | — | 24.68 |
| state index | 0.01 | 0.16 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.58 | -0.53 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.24 |
| travel km | — | 188.20 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.40 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.01 | 1.39 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.06 | 1.16 |