← EFL Championship 2025-26 · Sat, Jan 17, 05:30 PM UTC · ref: Tom Nield, England
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Birmingham win | 35% | 2.65 |
| Swansea win | 35% | 2.65 |
| Draw | 29% | 3.20 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Birmingham +0 | 50% | 1.93 |
| Swansea +0 | 50% | 1.93 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 55% | 1.73 |
| Over | 45% | 2.10 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 21' | ⚽ | Žan Vipotnik · Swansea |
| 72' | ⚽ | Patrick Roberts · Birmingham |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 19 | Shots | 12 |
| 4 | On target | 1 |
| 5 | Corners | 5 |
| 10 | Fouls | 14 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 0 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Swansea | Birmingham |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.39 | 0.29 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.42 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.30 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.64 | 0.70 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.80 |
| venue | Swansea.com Stadium |
| coach days |
| 200.00 |
| 595.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.08 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.20 | 0.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 4.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 4.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.39 | 3.50 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.16 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.53 | 0.47 |
| elo | 1440.20 | 1573.83 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 22.42 | -43.85 |
| eye test v1 | -0.04 | -0.05 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.08 | 0.19 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 58.00 | 54.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | -1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.63 | 0.88 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.80 | 0.67 |
| league points | 32.00 | 34.00 |
| league rank | 17.00 | 14.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 77.00 | 73.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 55.20 | 45.00 |
| rest days | 13.10 | 13.23 |
| scorer concentration | 0.38 | 0.16 |
| season ppg | 1.23 | 1.31 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 1.60 | -0.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.80 | 13.40 |
| skill v1 | 0.05 | -0.46 |
| solidity v1 | 0.27 | -0.72 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 5.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.40 | 3.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.00 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 4.00 |
| squad age | 26.55 | 28.89 |
| state index | 0.15 | -0.54 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.25 | -0.90 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.22 | 0.34 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.31 |
| travel km | — | 169.00 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.40 | 0.20 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.03 | 1.57 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.15 | 1.40 |