← EFL Championship 2025-26 · Sat, Jan 17, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Matt Donohue, England
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Stoke win | 46% | 2.05 |
| Draw | 29% | 3.20 |
| QPR win | 25% | 3.70 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Stoke −0.25 | 55% | 1.73 |
| QPR −0.25 | 45% | 2.08 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 55% | 1.73 |
| Over | 45% | 2.10 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 29' | 🟨 | Ben Pearson · Stoke |
| 29' | 🟨 | Amadou Salif Mbengue · QPR |
| 37' | 🟨 | Divin Mubama · Stoke |
| 45' | 🟨 | Lamine Cissé · Stoke |
| 50' | 🟨 | Jimmy Dunne · QPR |
| 78' | 🟨 | Richard Kone · QPR |
| 90' | 🟨 | Daniel Bennie · QPR |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 12 | Shots | 7 |
| 3 | On target | 2 |
| 6 | Corners | 2 |
| 11 | Fouls | 10 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Stoke | QPR |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.34 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.40 | 0.19 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.29 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.65 | 0.66 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.00 |
| venue | Bet365 Stadium |
| coach days | 381.00 | 200.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.22 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.00 | -1.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 5.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 4.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.91 | 1.51 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.05 | 0.12 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| elo | 1483.78 | 1453.23 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 5.59 | 3.35 |
| eye test v1 | -0.45 | -0.77 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.43 | -0.76 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 53.60 | 54.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 2.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.05 | 1.14 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.65 | 0.66 |
| league points | 40.00 | 38.00 |
| league rank | 9.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 78.00 | 75.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 53.80 | 44.40 |
| rest days | 13.00 | 13.13 |
| scorer concentration | 0.33 | 0.30 |
| season ppg | 1.54 | 1.46 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 0.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.80 | 9.20 |
| skill v1 | 0.06 | -0.71 |
| solidity v1 | 0.74 | 0.02 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.50 | 3.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 1.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 3.20 |
| squad age | 28.32 | — |
| state index | 0.03 | -0.11 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.56 | -0.16 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.19 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.22 | 0.16 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.22 |
| travel km | — | 211.00 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.80 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.23 | 1.47 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.18 | 0.88 |