← EFL Championship 2025-26 · Sat, Jan 17, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Sam Allison, England
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Southampton win | 60% | 1.53 |
| Draw | 24% | 3.90 |
| Hull win | 16% | 5.75 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Hull −1 | 53% | 1.83 |
| Southampton −1 | 47% | 2.03 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 57% | 1.67 |
| Under | 43% | 2.20 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 20' | ⚽ | Kyle Joseph · Hull |
| 34' | ⚽ | Charlie Hughes · Hull |
| 38' | 🟨 | Lewie Coyle · Hull |
| 45' | 🟨 | Charlie Hughes · Hull |
| 71' | ⚽ | Ross Stewart · Southampton |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 22 | Shots | 9 |
| 7 | On target | 3 |
| 8 | Corners | 2 |
| 5 | Fouls | 15 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Southampton | Hull |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.39 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.14 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.27 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.65 | 0.69 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 3.60 |
| venue | St. Mary's Stadium |
| coach days | 200.00 | 200.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.03 | 0.16 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | -1.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 5.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 4.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.28 | 2.71 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.07 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.52 | 0.43 |
| elo | 1426.95 | 1475.59 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -13.71 | 25.40 |
| eye test v1 | 0.32 | -0.57 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.52 | -0.47 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 60.10 | 51.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | 0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.18 | 0.97 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.45 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.64 | 0.71 |
| league points | 33.00 | 41.00 |
| league rank | 15.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 6.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 85.40 | 71.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 60.60 | 43.80 |
| rest days | 13.00 | 16.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.26 | 0.26 |
| season ppg | 1.27 | 1.64 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | -3.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 16.60 | 10.60 |
| skill v1 | 0.88 | -0.62 |
| solidity v1 | -0.11 | 0.35 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.60 | 3.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 1.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 3.00 |
| squad age | 25.92 | 28.62 |
| state index | -0.54 | 0.19 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.61 | -0.58 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.25 |
| travel km | — | 323.30 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.20 | 2.00 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.37 | 1.32 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.24 | 1.44 |