← EFL Championship 2025-26 · Sat, Jan 17, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Tim Robinson, England
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Bristol City win | 43% | 2.15 |
| Oxford win | 29% | 3.20 |
| Draw | 27% | 3.40 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Bristol City +0.25 | 50% | 1.93 |
| Oxford +0.25 | 50% | 1.93 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 52% | 1.85 |
| Over | 48% | 2.00 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 18' | 🟨 | Stanley Mills · Oxford |
| 25' | 🟨 | Sam Morsy · Bristol City |
| 29' | 🟨 | Yunus Konak · Oxford |
| 53' | 🟨 | Robert Dickie · Bristol City |
| 79' | 🟨 | Cameron Pring · Bristol City |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 9 | Shots | 6 |
| 3 | On target | 1 |
| 6 | Corners | 5 |
| 9 | Fouls | 12 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Oxford | Bristol City |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.22 | 0.29 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.40 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.54 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.20 |
| venue | Kassam Stadium |
| coach days | 169.00 | 16.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.18 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.40 | -1.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 7.00 | 5.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 4.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.50 | 2.71 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.10 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.49 |
| elo | 1401.89 | 1504.28 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -22.54 | 8.23 |
| eye test v1 | -0.41 | -0.02 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.06 | -0.56 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 55.50 | 57.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | 1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 2.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.74 | 1.57 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.40 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.74 | 0.67 |
| league points | 22.00 | 39.00 |
| league rank | 23.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 15.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 72.80 | 78.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 43.00 | 49.60 |
| rest days | 16.00 | 13.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.24 | 0.20 |
| season ppg | 0.88 | 1.50 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | -1.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 14.40 | 12.00 |
| skill v1 | -0.91 | -0.27 |
| solidity v1 | 0.33 | 0.73 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 2.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.70 | 5.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 4.60 |
| state index | -0.56 | 0.10 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.29 | -0.06 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.34 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.26 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.20 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.01 | 1.18 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 0.93 | 0.91 |