← EFL Championship 2025-26 · Sat, Jan 17, 12:30 PM UTC · ref: Ruebyn Ricardo, England
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Watford win | 44% | 2.10 |
| Draw | 28% | 3.30 |
| Millwall win | 27% | 3.40 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Watford −0.25 | 52% | 1.85 |
| Millwall −0.25 | 48% | 2.00 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 53% | 1.83 |
| Over | 47% | 2.03 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 45' | 🟨 | Hector Kyprianou · Watford |
| 49' | 🟨 | Billy Mitchell · Millwall |
| 54' | 🟨 | Giorgi Chakvetadze · Watford |
| 66' | 🟨 | Alfie Doughty · Millwall |
| 69' | ⚽ | Femi Azeez · Millwall |
| 71' | 🟨 | Camiel Neghli · Millwall |
| 81' | ⚽ | Josh Coburn · Millwall |
| 89' | 🟨 | Nestory Irankunda · Watford |
| 89' | 🟨 | Tristan Crama · Millwall |
| 90' | 🟨 | Matthew Pollock · Watford |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 9 | Shots | 13 |
| 3 | On target | 4 |
| 4 | Corners | 4 |
| 7 | Fouls | 22 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Watford | Millwall |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.36 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.31 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.37 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.66 | 0.67 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 2.60 |
| venue | Vicarage Road |
| coach days | 16.00 | 412.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.07 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.60 | 0.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 4.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 5.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.02 | 3.68 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.05 | 0.06 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.55 | 0.46 |
| elo | 1493.93 | 1491.74 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 57.58 | 1.97 |
| eye test v1 | -0.33 | -0.23 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.29 | -0.07 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 56.30 | 58.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 13.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.92 | 0.99 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.10 | 0.90 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.78 | 0.75 |
| league points | 41.00 | 43.00 |
| league rank | 6.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since blank | 15.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 78.20 | 66.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 45.40 | 42.80 |
| rest days | 15.90 | 12.90 |
| scorer concentration | 0.21 | 0.19 |
| season ppg | 1.64 | 1.65 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 1.80 | -2.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.20 | 11.60 |
| skill v1 | -0.37 | -1.28 |
| solidity v1 | 1.63 | 0.34 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.80 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 4.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 4.60 |
| squad age | 27.05 | — |
| state index | 0.75 | -0.12 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.19 | -1.05 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.31 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.28 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.00 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 0.70 | 1.23 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.07 | 1.00 |