← EFL Championship 2025-26 · Sun, Jan 4, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Farai Hallam, England
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Norwich win | 48% | 2.01 |
| Draw | 27% | 3.59 |
| Stoke win | 25% | 3.85 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Stoke −0.5 | 52% | 1.88 |
| Norwich −0.5 | 48% | 2.02 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 52% | 1.87 |
| Over | 48% | 2.03 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 25' | 🟨 | Bosun Lawal · Stoke |
| 72' | 🟨 | Ben Pearson · Stoke |
| 75' | ⚽ | Sam Gallagher · Stoke |
| 82' | ⚽ | Sorba Thomas · Stoke |
| 85' | 🟨 | Kellen Fisher · Norwich |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 7 | Shots | 14 |
| 1 | On target | 4 |
| 3 | Corners | 3 |
| 9 | Fouls | 10 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Norwich | Stoke |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.31 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.38 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.68 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 2.60 |
| venue | Carrow Road |
| coach days | 156.00 | 368.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 1.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 4.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 6.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.50 | 2.01 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.06 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.56 | 0.43 |
| elo | 1402.18 | 1469.08 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 31.49 | -2.08 |
| eye test v1 | -0.46 | -0.52 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.25 | 0.28 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 52.90 | 55.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.84 | 0.99 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.64 | 0.60 |
| league points | 24.00 | 37.00 |
| league rank | 22.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 77.20 | 77.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 51.00 | 52.40 |
| rest days | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.38 | 0.32 |
| season ppg | 0.96 | 1.48 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 2.60 | -2.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.60 | 9.60 |
| skill v1 | -0.13 | -0.24 |
| solidity v1 | 1.16 | 0.24 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.40 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 3.60 |
| squad age | 29.13 | 28.32 |
| state index | 0.12 | -0.31 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.10 | 0.62 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.18 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.21 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.19 |
| travel km | — | 237.70 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.60 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 0.93 | 1.37 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.15 | 0.86 |