← EFL Championship 2025-26 · Sun, Jan 4, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: John Busby, England
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Millwall win | 45% | 2.18 |
| Draw | 30% | 3.18 |
| Swansea win | 25% | 3.84 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Millwall −0.25 | 53% | 1.85 |
| Swansea −0.25 | 47% | 2.06 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 60% | 1.61 |
| Over | 40% | 2.43 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 38' | ⚽ | Mihailo Ivanovic · Millwall |
| 47' | ⚽ | Ben Cabango · Swansea |
| 66' | 🟨 | Camiel Neghli · Millwall |
| 72' | 🟨 | Zak Sturge · Millwall |
| 90' | ⚽ | Caleb Taylor · Millwall |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 17 | Shots | 13 |
| 9 | On target | 7 |
| 12 | Corners | 3 |
| 12 | Fouls | 8 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 0 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Millwall | Swansea |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.35 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.35 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.38 | 0.31 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.66 | 0.66 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 2.80 |
| venue | The Den |
| coach days |
| 399.00 |
| 187.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.07 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | -0.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 5.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 5.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.98 | 2.33 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.10 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.45 | 0.57 |
| elo | 1484.47 | 1447.48 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -25.27 | 22.67 |
| eye test v1 | -0.50 | -0.06 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.05 | -0.27 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 58.40 | 58.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.94 | 0.74 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.75 | 0.76 |
| league points | 40.00 | 32.00 |
| league rank | 8.00 | 16.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 68.80 | 79.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 44.80 | 56.40 |
| rest days | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.20 | 0.39 |
| season ppg | 1.60 | 1.28 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -2.60 | 3.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.40 | 14.00 |
| skill v1 | -1.18 | 0.28 |
| solidity v1 | 0.07 | 0.81 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.10 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 4.20 |
| squad age | — | 26.55 |
| state index | -0.38 | -0.07 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.59 | 0.42 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.25 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.60 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.42 | 0.73 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 0.78 | 1.19 |