← EFL Championship 2025-26 · Sun, Jan 4, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Matthew Corlett, England
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Derby win | 43% | 2.24 |
| Draw | 29% | 3.25 |
| Wrexham win | 27% | 3.61 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Derby −0.25 | 51% | 1.92 |
| Wrexham −0.25 | 49% | 1.99 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 61% | 1.58 |
| Over | 39% | 2.47 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 25' | ⚽ | Sam Smith · Wrexham |
| 30' | 🟨 | Max Cleworth · Wrexham |
| 34' | ⚽ | Ben Brereton Díaz · Derby |
| 48' | ⚽ | Matty James · Wrexham |
| 68' | 🟨 | Matty James · Wrexham |
| 73' | 🟨 | Dion Sanderson · Derby |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 13 | Shots | 11 |
| 5 | On target | 3 |
| 12 | Corners | 2 |
| 9 | Fouls | 8 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Derby | Wrexham |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.34 | 0.29 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.43 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.34 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.20 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.68 | 0.81 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.60 |
| venue | Pride Park |
| coach days |
| 337.00 |
| 1648.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.15 |
| congestion 21d | 5.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.21 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.80 | 2.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 3.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 6.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.10 | 2.67 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.11 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.51 | 0.44 |
| elo | 1437.56 | 1623.40 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 23.83 | 4.69 |
| eye test v1 | -0.80 | -0.12 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.32 | 0.82 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 53.20 | 63.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.70 | 1.43 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.45 | 0.40 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.64 | 0.74 |
| league points | 35.00 | 37.00 |
| league rank | 12.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since blank | 15.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 70.80 | 75.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 44.00 | 48.40 |
| rest days | 3.00 | 3.10 |
| scorer concentration | 0.27 | 0.29 |
| season ppg | 1.40 | 1.48 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -2.20 | -2.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.60 | 12.00 |
| skill v1 | -0.99 | -0.19 |
| solidity v1 | 0.47 | 0.08 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.30 | 3.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.00 | 5.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 4.20 |
| squad age | 25.89 | 30.74 |
| state index | -0.08 | 0.24 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.26 | -0.12 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.19 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.24 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.21 | 1.30 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 0.94 | 1.41 |