← EFL Championship 2025-26 · Sun, Jan 4, 12:00 PM UTC · ref: James Linington, England
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Coventry win | 36% | 2.63 |
| Birmingham win | 36% | 2.68 |
| Draw | 27% | 3.57 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Birmingham +0 | 50% | 1.97 |
| Coventry +0 | 50% | 1.95 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 53% | 1.81 |
| Under | 47% | 2.07 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 6' | ⚽ | Marvin Ducksch · Birmingham |
| 8' | ⚽ | Josh Eccles · Coventry |
| 17' | ⚽ | Lewis Koumas · Birmingham |
| 36' | 🟨 | Marvin Ducksch · Birmingham |
| 51' | 🟨 | Kai Wagner · Birmingham |
| 60' | ⚽ | Ellis Simms · Coventry |
| 63' | ⚽ | Marvin Ducksch · Birmingham |
| 86' | 🟨 | Josh Eccles · Coventry |
| 88' | 🟨 | James Beadle · Birmingham |
| 90' | 🟥 | Bobby Thomas · Coventry |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 9 | Shots | 17 |
| 4 | On target | 6 |
| 2 | Corners | 6 |
| 13 | Fouls | 8 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Birmingham | Coventry |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.30 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.36 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.64 | 0.71 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 1.20 |
| venue | St. Andrew's @ Knighthead Park |
| coach days |
| 582.00 |
| 429.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.03 | 0.06 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.20 | -2.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 6.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 3.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.41 | 2.23 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.04 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.56 | 0.47 |
| elo | 1564.63 | 1596.75 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -57.17 | -16.17 |
| eye test v1 | 0.11 | 0.25 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.30 | -0.25 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 55.00 | 61.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.14 | 1.35 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.55 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.71 | 0.74 |
| league points | 31.00 | 52.00 |
| league rank | 17.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 11.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 7.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 80.00 | 76.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 52.60 | 48.60 |
| rest days | 2.88 | 2.88 |
| scorer concentration | 0.18 | 0.17 |
| season ppg | 1.24 | 2.08 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 4.80 | -1.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 16.40 | 15.00 |
| skill v1 | 0.28 | -0.21 |
| solidity v1 | -0.33 | -0.07 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 5.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.10 | 6.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.00 | 5.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 5.00 |
| squad age | 28.89 | — |
| state index | -0.67 | -0.03 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.27 | -0.51 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.32 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.32 | 0.32 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.30 |
| travel km | — | 25.40 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.20 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.53 | 1.30 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.39 | 1.25 |