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Sheffield United 3–1 Leicester

← EFL Championship 2025-26 Β· Thu, Jan 1, 05:30 PM UTC Β· ref: Farai Hallam, England

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

β€œMarket” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin β€” the world's best guess. β€œModel” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) β€” it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Sheffield United win56%1.72
Draw24%4.10
Leicester win20%4.75

across 2 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Leicester βˆ’0.7550%1.95
Sheffield United βˆ’0.7550%1.95

across 2 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Over55%1.76
Under45%2.14

across 2 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

26'🟨Abdul Fatawu Issahaku · Leicester
36'⚽Japhet Tanganga · Sheffield United
52'⚽Thomas Cannon · Sheffield United
65'🟨Stephy Mavididi · Leicester
84'🟨Femi Seriki · Sheffield United
88'⚽Callum O'Hare · Sheffield United
90'⚽Jordan James · Leicester

from ESPN event data Β· goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score0
13Shots6
5On target1
7Corners3
13Fouls10
1Yellow cards2
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in β€” computed only from games before this one.

MetricSheffield UnitedLeicester
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.330.38
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.420.23
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.350.29
blown lead rate (last 20)0.200.20
box share (last 5)0.790.58
cards avg (last 5)1.40
Everything else we hold on this match Β· 1 more recorded fact β€” tap to expand
venueBramall Lane
2.00
coach days762.00153.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.050.00
congestion 21d4.004.00
conversion (last 5)0.110.18
corner diff avg (last 5)-0.40-1.40
corners against avg (last 5)5.405.40
corners for avg (last 5)5.004.00
corners volatility (last 10)3.281.57
defensive leak (last 5)0.120.15
dominance (last 5)0.560.43
elo1643.421640.87
elo momentum (last 5)-6.88-7.10
eye test v10.86-0.68
eye trend v10.20-0.39
first sub minute (last 10)57.7057.40
form points (last 5)7.007.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.00-0.20
goals against avg (last 5)1.802.00
goals for avg (last 5)1.801.80
goals volatility (last 10)1.400.92
h2 goals (last 10)0.900.60
h2h win rate (last 5)0.200.80
ht lead rate (last 20)0.450.45
keeper form v1β€”0.66
league points29.0034.00
league rank18.0013.00
matches since blank3.007.00
matches since clean sheet2.0018.00
matches since win0.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)79.4077.40
possession avg (last 5)51.0045.60
rest days2.912.91
scorer concentration0.220.24
season ppg1.211.42
shot diff avg (last 5)3.00-3.80
shots for avg (last 5)15.209.80
skill v10.76-0.44
solidity v1-0.30-0.52
sot against avg (last 5)4.604.80
sot for avg (last 10)5.003.30
sot for avg (last 3)6.672.00
sot for avg (last 5)5.403.00
squad age24.9425.48
state index0.360.02
sterile dominance v1-0.27-0.03
threat rate (last 10)0.320.20
threat rate (last 3)0.300.17
threat rate (last 5)0.300.22
travel kmβ€”86.30
venue ppg (last 5)2.201.40
xg against avg (last 5)1.421.51
xg for avg (last 5)2.250.98